doomsday clock how does it work
The Doomsday Clock is a symbolic “warning gauge” created by scientists to show how close humanity is to global catastrophe, with midnight representing annihilation. It doesn’t measure physics like a real clock; it’s a judgment call made once a year by experts based on the state of the world.
What is the Doomsday Clock?
- It was created in 1947 by the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, originally to warn about nuclear war.
- Midnight = global catastrophe (nuclear war, runaway climate change, uncontrolled tech risks, etc.).
- The time (e.g., “90 seconds to midnight”) is a metaphor for how dangerous the current moment is.
In January 2025 it was set to 89 seconds before midnight, the closest it had ever been up to that point. In January 2026, reporting described it at 85 seconds to midnight, citing war, nuclear tensions, climate change, and AI as key reasons.
Who sets it?
- The time is set by the Bulletin’s Science and Security Board, around 17 scientists and policy experts in fields like nuclear policy, climate, and security.
- They consult additional specialists throughout the year, then meet in person (typically in Chicago) to debate and vote on the time.
- After agreeing on the time, they publish a detailed statement explaining their reasoning and what actions they think governments and societies should take.
Think of it like a yearly “report card” on existential risk, written by people who work on these threats professionally.
How do they decide the time?
There’s no secret formula; it’s an expert judgment process combining data, scenarios, and debate.
They look at:
- Nuclear risks
- Tensions between nuclear powers (e.g., U.S., Russia, China).
* Arms control treaties being created, upheld, or abandoned.
* Incidents that increase the chance of miscalculation or accidental launch.
- Climate change
- Emissions trends and temperature records.
* Global climate agreements and whether countries are meeting targets.
- Other disruptive technologies
- Rapid advances in AI, cyber weapons, biological risks, or other emerging technologies that could be misused at scale.
- Political and social factors
- Wars (like the war in Ukraine) and regional conflicts.
* Levels of international cooperation versus nationalism and breakdown of norms.
* Disinformation, attacks on institutions, and other things that might make managing crises harder.
They then ask themselves questions like:
- Is the world safer or more dangerous than last year?
- Are there clear positive steps (treaties, de-escalation, climate progress) or mainly negative trends?
- How does the current moment compare to other points in the Clock’s 70+ year history?
After presentations and discussion, they adjust the time forward (closer to midnight) or backward (farther from midnight), or keep it the same.
How often does it change?
- The time is formally assessed once a year and usually announced in January.
- Since 1947, the Clock has been reset more than 25 times as global conditions changed.
- The farthest from midnight it’s ever been was 17 minutes in 1991, after the end of the Cold War and major nuclear arms agreements.
So, it’s not continuously ticking—more like an annual snapshot.
Is it scientific or just symbolism?
It’s intentionally symbolic, but grounded in expert analysis:
- Not a precise calculation: There’s no equation that spits out “89 seconds to midnight.”
- Expert-driven metaphor : It compresses many complex risks (nuclear, climate, tech, geopolitics) into one vivid image people can remember.
- The Board uses data, historical examples, and risk scenarios, but the final number is a judgment call meant to communicate urgency.
Some critics on forums argue that merging many different threats into one “time” is confusing or emotionally manipulative, and can feel like constant alarm. Supporters counter that the simplicity is the point: it’s meant to jolt people into thinking about long‑term survival, not to serve as a detailed risk model.
Why do people talk about it so much?
The Clock often spikes in news and forum discussions when:
- It moves closer to midnight than ever before.
- There’s a major war, nuclear threat, or climate milestone.
- AI and other tech breakthroughs raise fresh questions about human control.
Recent coverage highlighted nuclear threats, the war in Ukraine, climate crises, and advances in AI as “stacked” risks, which is part of why the clock has remained extremely close to midnight in the mid‑2020s.
You can think of it as a global “smoke alarm” for existential risk: it doesn’t predict exactly when a fire will start, but it’s there to tell you whether the house is getting safer or more flammable.
TL;DR: The Doomsday Clock is a symbolic clock set once a year by a board of scientists and security experts to show how close humanity is to global catastrophe, with midnight as “the end.” They move it forward or backward based on trends in nuclear risk, climate change, emerging technologies, and global politics, aiming to warn and motivate action rather than to predict a specific date.
Information gathered from public forums or data available on the internet and portrayed here.