how common is als
ALS, or amyotrophic lateral sclerosis, is a rare neurodegenerative disease affecting nerve cells in the brain and spinal cord. Prevalence rates typically range from 4 to 8 cases per 100,000 people worldwide, making it uncommon but impactful.
Prevalence Overview
Population-based studies show ALS prevalence between 4.1 and 8.4 per 100,000 persons , with some US estimates reaching 5.5 per 100,000 in 2017 using conservative data from the National ALS Registry.
Recent CDC projections indicate around 33,000 cases in the US in 2022 , expected to rise over 10% to more than 36,000 by 2030 due to aging populations and improved survivability from treatments.
Globally, North American point prevalence spans 2 to 11.8 per 100,000 , varying by study methodology and region.
US Trends and Projections
- In 2015, the US identified 16,583 definite ALS cases , aligning with a prevalence of about 5 per 100,000.
- State variations exist: from 2.6 per 100,000 in Hawaii to 7.8 in Vermont (2011–2018 average 4.4 nationally), showing a north-to-south gradient possibly tied to demographics or environment.
- Males face higher rates than females, with under-ascertainment more common in those under 59.
Year/Period| Estimated US Prevalence (per 100,000)| Total Cases (Lower-Bound)|
Source Notes
---|---|---|---
2015| ~5.0| 16,583| CDC Registry 6
2017| 5.5 (conservative); 7.7 (mean)| 17,800–24,821| Capture-recapture 3
2022| N/A| ~33,000| Projected rise 5
2030 (proj)| N/A| >36,000| Demographics-driven 5
Global and Incidence Context
Internationally, prevalence holds steady in the 4–8 per 100,000 range , with slight increases over time in some long-term studies, though not always statistically significant.
Incidence (new cases yearly) is about 1–2 per 100,000, but lifetime risk is higher—around 1 in 300–400 in Europe/North America—highlighting why forums debate "rarity" beyond raw prevalence.
A 2023 review confirmed challenges in epidemiology due to ALS's rapid progression, emphasizing improved diagnostics' role in recent upticks.
Forum Discussions on Variability
Reddit users puzzle over wide prevalence ranges (e.g., 2–12 per 100,000), attributing it to diagnostic criteria, registry coverage, and prevalence vs. lifetime risk. One commenter noted: > "With that in mind... the average North American/European should be far more concerned with ALS than with Ebola."
This echoes expert views: undercounting in younger patients or certain insurance groups skews data lower.
Why It Feels More Common Lately
Advances like better survival (e.g., via therapies) boost prevalence without raising incidence.
As of 2026, no major breakthroughs have exploded numbers, but CDC dashboards track real-time trends via registries. Awareness from cases like Stephen Hawking keeps it in conversations, though stats confirm rarity.
TL;DR : ALS affects roughly 5–8 per 100,000 (25,000–33,000 US adults now), rare but rising slowly due to demographics—not an epidemic.
Information gathered from public forums or data available on the internet and portrayed here.