US Trends

how likely is a civil war

A large, organized “Second American Civil War” with armies in uniforms and clear battle lines is widely considered very unlikely in the near term, but the risk of rising political violence and “low‑grade” conflict is real enough that serious people track it closely.

Quick Scoop: How likely is a civil war?

When people ask “how likely is a civil war,” they usually mean one of three things:

  1. A classic, 1860s‑style North vs. South civil war.
  2. States or regions breaking away from the federal government.
  3. A messy mix of terrorism, militias, riots, and political killings that feels like a slow-motion conflict.

Most experts and surveys say option 1 is very unlikely; option 3 is the more realistic worry.

What experts and surveys say

  • A 2023–2024 national survey found only about 5–6% of Americans strongly agree that there will be a civil war in the next few years, and only around 4% strongly agree that a civil war is “needed.”
  • That means most people, even in a tense climate, do not actively expect or want a war, which is a stabilizing factor.
  • On the other hand, research has found “concerning” levels of agreement that civil war is at least somewhat likely, and some people who think it might even be necessary.
  • This gap—between a small hard core and a larger uneasy middle—creates a lot of anxiety but not an automatic slide into war.

One way to think about it: the loudest voices online often sound apocalyptic, but they don’t represent most people.

“On the brink” arguments

Some high‑profile analysts argue the U.S. is in a dangerous “pre‑breakdown” phase:

  • Investor and author Ray Dalio has warned that the U.S. is deep into a stage of its political and economic “big cycle” characterized by:
    • High debt and strained government finances
    • Large wealth gaps
    • Intense internal political conflict
  • He has suggested the risk of “some form of civil war” is uncomfortably high—at one point saying more than 50% over the long run if trends continue.
  • In early 2026 he argued that political violence (like killings in Minneapolis) plus surging debt are signs the system is under severe stress and could slide toward a more explicit civil conflict depending on how leaders respond.

This doesn’t mean war is inevitable; it means the conditions that historically precede major internal conflicts are showing up, which is why you hear elite-level warnings.

Why a full civil war is still unlikely

Security analysts who study actual civil wars point out several missing ingredients in the U.S. right now:

  • No large, cohesive rebel army
  • No major, open split in the top ranks of the military
  • No outright economic collapse, despite serious problems
  • No large region that has clearly seceded or set up a rival government

A 2025 analysis from a major foreign-policy think tank emphasized that while polarization is serious, you typically need years of sustained, organized fighting between a government and a resistance group, plus some combination of state collapse or hard authoritarian rule, before you get a real civil war.

So the “Second Civil War tomorrow” vision that dominates some forum discussions and YouTube thumbnails is, in expert eyes, not the most plausible scenario.

More realistic scenario: long, low‑level conflict

Many analysts and forum commentators think the more likely risk is a prolonged period of scattered political violence rather than a single, clear war:

  • Targeted attacks, terrorism, or bombings by extremists on the far right or far left.
  • Occasional clashes between armed groups and law enforcement.
  • Periodic riots or uprisings tied to flashpoint events (elections, high‑profile shootings, court decisions).
  • Harassment and threats against officials, journalists, or activists.

One Reddit discussion framed it this way: the odds of a full-scale Second Civil War are “extremely low,” but a long stretch of low‑intensity political violence, similar to the “Troubles” in Northern Ireland or the Italian “Years of Lead,” is much more plausible.

That kind of conflict doesn’t always have a clear start or end—it just feels like society is running hot all the time.

Why the topic is trending again (2024–2026)

The phrase “how likely is a civil war” keeps resurfacing in news and forums because of several recent trends:

  • Contested elections and fears one side won’t accept the result, especially in 2024.
  • High‑profile political violence, such as shootings that are read through partisan lenses.
  • Rising online radicalization, easier access to weapons, and “us vs. them” rhetoric.
  • Public warnings from prominent figures—when people like Dalio openly talk about “brink of civil war,” it feeds headlines and forum threads.

YouTube shorts and podcasts now routinely pose questions like “Is the U.S. heading toward civil war?” reflecting both genuine concern and the incentive to dramatize content.

Forum mood vs. real-world risk

If you read enough Reddit threads, you’ll see a few recurring patterns:

  • Some users spin detailed scenarios of blue states vs. red federal government, National Guard defections, and state–federal showdowns.
  • Others argue that most Americans are too busy, out of shape, or uninterested to wage any kind of serious conflict, and that online war talk is mostly fantasy.
  • There’s often a gap between how scared people feel and how actual data or expert analysis frames the risk.

One useful example: in a political Reddit thread, commenters pointed out that surveys showing belief in civil war often rely on limited samples, and that people may also posture or exaggerate in anonymous polls.

So forums are a good window into anxieties, but they are not a reliable probability model.

How to think about “likelihood” in plain language

No one can put a precise percentage on “how likely is a civil war,” but a reasonable, simplified framing based on current research and expert commentary would be:

  • Classic, large‑scale civil war in the next few years: very low probability , not zero, but far from the most expected outcome.
  • Noticeable growth in political violence, armed extremism, and occasional deadly incidents: moderate probability , already somewhat visible and could worsen.
  • Stable democracy with intense polarization and periodic crises, but no organized war: still the most likely path, especially if institutions hold and leaders de‑escalate at key moments.

The key variables are leadership choices, economic shocks, how security forces respond to unrest, and whether the public rewards politicians who cool tensions instead of inflaming them.

If you’re asking because you’re worried

Even if the odds of a “real” civil war are low, the fear can feel very personal. People worry about safety, family, and whether it’s worth planning for worst‑case scenarios. Concrete steps that are reasonable regardless of what happens:

  • Stay informed from multiple credible sources, not just doom‑heavy feeds.
  • Strengthen local ties: neighbors, community groups, mutual aid—these matter in any crisis.
  • Focus on practical resilience (savings if possible, basic supplies, copies of important documents).
  • Engage in politics and civic life in ways that reduce dehumanizing language and support peaceful conflict resolution.

This mindset helps with everything from natural disasters to political shocks; it does not require believing that a war is imminent.

Information gathered from public forums or data available on the internet and portrayed here.

TL;DR: Most serious analyses say a full‑scale U.S. civil war remains unlikely, but the risk of rising political violence and sporadic, low‑level conflict is real enough to watch—and to respond to by strengthening institutions, communities, and norms against political violence.