How likely is Germany to win against Paraguay?

Germany looks like the likelier winner, with the market broadly favoring Germany and giving Paraguay only a clear underdog chance. Based on the latest match previews and odds, Germany’s win probability is roughly in the 65–75% range, while Paraguay’s upset path is much narrower.

Why Germany is favored

Germany is priced as the stronger side in recent odds, with one listing around -245 to -265 on the moneyline and Paraguay around +750. Several previews also point to Germany’s stronger overall profile and more favorable matchup conditions entering this Round of 32 game.

What that means in practice

That kind of pricing usually implies Germany is a solid favorite, but not a lock. A good way to read it is: Germany wins more often than not, Paraguay can hang around, and a draw or one-goal game is still plausible.

Quick read

• Germany win: likely.
• Paraguay win: possible, but an upset.
• Best simple estimate: Germany by a narrow-to-moderate margin.

TL;DR: Germany is the safer pick, and the current market suggests they should win this matchup most of the time.