how many deportations is the US on track to do by 2027

The most commonly cited on-the-books target is 1 million deportations a year , which would imply about 2 million by the end of 2027 if that pace were sustained. That figure comes from reporting on ICE’s FY 2027 budget materials, which say the agency increased its future annual target to 1,000,000 returns and removals.

What that means in practice

That number is a target , not a guaranteed outcome, and it includes both formal removals and voluntary returns. Reporting also notes the administration had already been talking about 1 million a year, but real-world totals can fall short of targets because of legal, logistical, and funding limits.

Current pace context

For context, ICE reported 442,637 deportations in fiscal 2025 , which is below a 1 million-a-year pace. Some analysts and advocates argue that even with expanded enforcement, reaching 2 million by 2027 would require a major and sustained jump from recent levels.

Bottom line

A reasonable estimate, based on the stated federal goal, is around 2 million deportations by 2027 if the administration sustains a 1 million-a-year pace. But that should be treated as an aspirational projection , not a firm forecast.