how often does phil see his shadow
Punxsutawney Phil, the famous groundhog from Pennsylvania, sees his shadow most years during the Groundhog Day tradition on February 2. Records show he has predicted more winter (by seeing his shadow) far more often than early spring.
Phil's Shadow History
Phil has seen his shadow 110 times since official records began, compared to just 28-30 predictions of no shadow (early spring). This lopsided trend holds because sunny mornings—needed for a shadow—are more common in early February than cloudy ones. For context, in 2026 (today's event), Phil did see his shadow again , calling for six more weeks of winter, matching last year's call.
Here's a quick breakdown of his lifetime stats as of 2026:
Prediction Type| Times Seen| Percentage
---|---|---
Shadow (More Winter)| 110| ~79% 17
No Shadow (Early Spring)| 28-30| ~21% 37
Why the Imbalance?
- Weather Patterns : Punxsutawney, PA, often has clearer skies in February, boosting shadow odds—nature's quirky bias, not Phil's choice.
- Tradition Roots : Dating to 1887, the event ties to old European folklore (Candlemas), where sunshine meant extended cold.
- Fun fact: Phil's "handler" interprets his "Groundhogese" scroll, but stats prove winter wins big historically.
Forum Buzz & Trending Takes
Online chatter loves debating Phil's "accuracy" (around 40% per studies, pure folklore fun). Reddit threads from past years roast it as "harmless silliness" or gripe "always winter anyway." This year’s shadow sighting already sparks memes: "Phil’s batting average worse than my fantasy team!" Multi-view: Skeptics call it pseudoscience; fans adore the ritual.
TL;DR : Phil sees his shadow about 80% of the time—110+ instances—favoring winter predictions, as confirmed in today's 2026 event.
Information gathered from public forums or data available on the internet and portrayed here.