how often does the favorite win the kentucky derby
The betting favorite wins the Kentucky Derby roughly one-third of the time – about 34–35% over modern history.
Quick Scoop
- Since pari-mutuel betting began in 1908, the post-time favorite has won about 40 of 117 runnings , or 34.2%.
- Another analysis rounds this to about 39 wins and “roughly a 35 percent” strike rate for favorites in that same era.
- That means about two times out of three, the favorite does not win the Kentucky Derby.
Recent trends
- Favorites had a hot streak from 2013–2018 , winning six straight Derbies (Orb, California Chrome, American Pharoah, Nyquist, Always Dreaming, Justify).
- Since 2018, there has been a dry spell where the favorite has not won for several consecutive years, though many have still finished in the top three.
- Over the full modern era, favorites have finished in the top three about 63% of the time , so betting the favorite often keeps you “alive” in the race even when they don’t win.
Why it feels tricky
The Derby is a 20-horse, chaotic field with traffic, inexperience, and pace meltdowns all possible, so even a strong favorite can get beaten by trip trouble or race shape. A useful mental model: the favorite is usually the most likely winner in the race, but the race outcome is still more likely to be “someone else” than the favorite on any given year.
Mini FAQ
- Is the Derby favorite a “good bet”?
- Mathematically, the favorite has the best single chance in the field, but with only ~35% win rate and short odds, many bettors look for value elsewhere.
- Is the Derby different from everyday races?
- Across all horse races, favorites win about one-third of the time, similar to the Derby’s long-term pattern, but the Derby’s big field and hype make the upsets more memorable.
Information gathered from public forums or data available on the internet and portrayed here.