how often does the favorite win the super bowl

February 13, 2026

The betting favorite wins the Super Bowl well under half the time ; historically it’s closer to around one‑third of Super Bowls, and preseason favorites win even less often (roughly 15–20% of the time this century).

Quick Scoop

1. What “favorite” are we talking about?

There are two common ways people frame this question:

Preseason Super Bowl favorite (the team with the shortest odds before the season).
Game‑day Super Bowl favorite (the team favored in the point spread for that specific Super Bowl).

These are related but very different questions for bettors.

2. Preseason favorites: surprisingly poor hit rate

Looking just at this century, one breakdown finds:

Only 4 Super Bowl winners since 2000 were preseason favorites : the Colts (2006), Patriots (2016 and 2018), and Chiefs (2023).

That’s about a 16% win rate for preseason favorites over that sample.

A fan‑side analysis comes to a similar conclusion, estimating roughly a 17% hit rate for the preseason title favorite overall.

So if you bet only the preseason favorite every year, you’d be wrong about 4 out of 5 seasons.

3. Game‑day favorites: better, but still far from automatic

When people say “the favorite usually wins the Super Bowl,” they’re often thinking of the team favored in the spread on Super Bowl Sunday. Bookmakers usually install the stronger roster, better QB, or hotter team as the favorite, so these teams do win more often than coin‑flip odds, but still nowhere near 100%.

A couple of notable patterns from recent years:

In Super Bowls with big favorites (more than about 4.5 points) since the late 2000s, those favorites have actually lost the majority of the time, with only one covering and winning in a small sample.

Many iconic upsets (Giants over 18–0 Patriots, Eagles over Patriots, Bucs over Chiefs, etc.) are examples of underdogs winning outright despite being clear dogs in the line.

Putting together league‑wide spread records from public databases, you’ll generally find that favorites win straight up something like 60–70% of Super Bowls , but that number jumps around by era and sample method. It’s definitely more than half , but decisively not “almost always.”

4. Why favorites don’t dominate more

Several structural reasons explain why favorites don’t steamroll Super Bowls:

Small sample, huge stakes : One game, two weeks of prep, tons of variance (turnovers, injuries, weird bounces).
Evenly matched teams : By definition, both teams survived a long season and multiple playoff games; the gap between them is usually smaller than public perception.
Market bias : Public money tends to tilt toward big‑name QBs and glamor teams, which can make some favorites slightly overvalued in the line.

Matchup quirks : Scheme and specific strengths/weaknesses matter more than broad “power ratings” in a single matchup.

As a comparison, one analysis notes that horse‑racing favorites win around 30–35% of the time , which is higher than preseason Super Bowl favorites (about 16–17%) , but in the same ballpark conceptually.

5. How to think about it as a bettor or fan

If you’re looking at “how often does the favorite win the Super Bowl,” here’s a pragmatic way to frame it:

Preseason favorite :
- Wins roughly 1 out of every 6 seasons in modern data.

* Fun fan talking point, but a **weak long‑term betting strategy** on its own.

Game‑day favorite in the Super Bowl :
- Wins more often than not, but nowhere near automatic ; upsets are common and often memorable.

* The **spread size matters** ; very big favorites have not been as safe as casual fans assume.

So, the favorite does not “usually” win in the sense of being a lock—especially if you’re talking preseason—but it does win somewhat more than half the time once you get to the actual Super Bowl matchup, with enough volatility to keep the game interesting every year.

Information gathered from public forums or data available on the internet and portrayed here.