how often has the favourite won the melbourne cup

The Melbourne Cup favourite has won about one in four to five runnings of the race, so favourites lose far more often than they win.

How often the favourite wins

• Historical stats show that roughly 34 of the first 150 Melbourne Cups were won by the starting favourite, which is about 23%.

• More recent betting guides still describe the race as notoriously unpredictable , noting that backing the favourite is far from a sure thing despite that roughly one-in-four long‑term strike rate.

Recent decades pattern

• Modern coverage often highlights that in the 21st century the favourite’s record has been patchy , with several years where the winner started at double‑figure odds instead of on top of the market.

• This feeds into the race’s reputation: even though the favourite does win sometimes, the Melbourne Cup is seen as a “lottery” handicap where value is often found away from the top pick.

What this means for punters

• Historically, treating the favourite as a probable winner is a mistake; the long‑term numbers show it loses roughly three times for every one time it wins.

• Many Cup betting previews therefore suggest using the favourite in exotics (quinellas, trifectas, first fours) rather than relying solely on a win bet, or looking for well‑weighted runners slightly further down the market.

Information gathered from public forums or data available on the internet and portrayed here.