how often is the ground hog right

Punxsutawney Phil, the most famous groundhog forecaster, has a historically poor track record on Groundhog Day predictions. Studies consistently show his accuracy hovering around 39%, roughly equivalent to random chance.

Historical Accuracy

Various analyses over decades reveal Phil's predictions align with actual weather patterns far less than half the time. For instance, the Stormfax Almanac pegs it at 39% since 1887, while NOAA notes just 30% accuracy in the past decade. Meteorologist Tim Roche calculated 36% from 1969-2016, improving slightly to 47% for early spring calls.

Source| Time Period| Accuracy Rate
---|---|---
Stormfax Almanac 13| 1887-present| 39%
NOAA 3| Past 10 years| 30%
Weather Underground 1| 1969-2016| 36%
Farmer's Almanac 1| Long-term| 50%
National Geographic 1| Long-term| 28%

Other Groundhogs

Not all furry meteorologists fare equally—some slightly outperform Phil, though none exceed reliable thresholds. Nova Scotia's Shubenacadie Sam hits about 45-65%, Wiarton Willy around 54%, and top performers like Oil Springs Ollie reach higher marks. Still, most fall below 75%, the benchmark for dependability in one study.

Tradition's Charm

Despite the stats, Groundhog Day endures as a whimsical ritual rooted in European folklore, where badgers once played Phil's role before German settlers swapped in local groundhogs. Phil has "seen his shadow" 107 times since 1887 (predicting more winter) versus 20 no-shadow early springs, with gaps in early records. It's less about precision and more about community fun, even if pros using data models vastly outperform our prognosticating rodent.

TL;DR: Groundhogs like Phil are right about 30-50% of the time—pure guesswork, but the hype persists.

Information gathered from public forums or data available on the internet and portrayed here.