how often is the groundhog correct

Most analyses find that Punxsutawney Phil is “right” only about 30–40% of the time, which is worse than just flipping a coin.

How often is the groundhog correct?

• Long‑term reviews of Phil’s forecasts since 1887 put his overall accuracy at about 39%.

• The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has estimated his accuracy over recent years at roughly 30%.

• Other independent breakdowns using reliable weather records find similar numbers, usually between 30% and 40% overall.

In other words, if you’re wondering “how often is the groundhog correct,” the honest answer is: not very often, and certainly not enough to treat it as a serious weather forecast. It’s mostly a fun tradition rather than a dependable way to predict spring.

Information gathered from public forums or data available on the internet and portrayed here.