how often is the groundhog prediction correct

Punxsutawney Phil's Groundhog Day predictions have a historically low accuracy rate, often hovering around 39% since records began in 1887.

Historical Accuracy

Various analyses peg Phil's success well below random chance (50%). Stormfax Almanac reports 39% accuracy overall, while Weather Underground's Tim Roche calculated 36% from 1969-2016 (rising to 47% for early spring calls). The Farmer's Almanac claims exactly 50% , but National Geographic cites just 28%.

Source| Accuracy Rate| Time Period| Notes
---|---|---|---
Stormfax Almanac| 39%| Since 1887| Overall long-term 16
Weather Underground| 36%| 1969-2016| 47% for early spring 15
Farmer's Almanac| 50%| Unspecified| Questionable source itself 1
National Geographic| 28%| Unspecified| Lowest estimate 1
FiveThirtyEight| 36%| National avgs| Regional variance 36-50% 7

Other Groundhogs

Not just Phil—others fare similarly. Shubenacadie Sam (Nova Scotia) hits 45-65% , Wiarton Willy (Ontario) 25-54% , but most dip under 75% reliability. High performers like Oil Springs Ollie exceed others, while flops like Buckeye Chuck miss over 70%.

Trending Views

Forums buzz with skepticism: Reddit users note Phil's 39% is statistically worse than a coin flip (p=0.004), joking an "anti-Phil" rule-of-thumb beats him. Live Science highlights he's better (47%) predicting no shadow/early spring than six more weeks of winter. As of February 2026, recent coverage reaffirms the fun tradition trumps precision—charm over forecasts.

TL;DR : Groundhog predictions are correct about 39% of the time, less than a coin toss, but the spectacle endures.

Information gathered from public forums or data available on the internet and portrayed here.