how often is the groundhog wrong

Punxsutawney Phil, the famous groundhog of Groundhog Day fame, has a notably spotty track record on weather predictions. Various analyses peg his long-term accuracy at around 39%, meaning he's wrong more than six out of ten times.

Historical Accuracy

Phil's predictions date back to 1887, with records showing he saw his shadow (predicting more winter) 109 times and no shadow (early spring) just 21 times. Stormfax Almanac tallies his overall success at 39% through 2026, while NOAA notes a dismal 30% hit rate over the past decade (2013-2023). A coin flip would beat him handily at 50% odds.

Recent Performance

In the last 10 years, Phil nailed it only four times out of ten, per Stormfax—today's 2026 call for six more weeks of winter adds to his tally. From 2013-2023, his seven shadow sightings yielded just one correct forecast.

Groundhog| Accuracy Rate| Years Active| Notes 97
---|---|---|---
Punxsutawney Phil| 35-39%| Since 1887| Star of the show, but often outperformed
Staten Island Chuck| 85% (past 20 years)| Since 1981| Top performer at Staten Island Zoo
Dunkirk Dave (NY)| ~50%| Since 1960| Predicts spring harshness, not timing
Shubenacadie Sam (Canada)| ~45%| Varies| Better than Phil, per meteorologist estimates 3
Wiarton Willy (Canada)| 25%| Varies| Struggles like Phil 3

Why So Wrong?

Defining "right" hinges on February-March U.S. temps: shadow means cold/equal chances of winter lingering, no shadow signals above-average warmth. Phil's folk tradition roots in European Candlemas, but science shows rodents aren't meteorologists—random chance explains his middling results better than mystic insight. Still, the ritual endures for its charm, drawing crowds to Gobbler's Knob yearly.

Other Perspectives

Skeptics laugh it off as 50/50 folklore, with the Farmer's Almanac calling it exactly even and National Geographic at 28%. Fans embrace the fun: one analysis found Phil 70% on temps but flops on early springs. Forums buzz with "Phil's cursed!" memes post-miss, yet 2026's hype proves tradition trumps stats.

TL;DR: Phil's wrong about 61% of the time historically, per Stormfax and NOAA—fun spectacle, lousy forecaster.

Information gathered from public forums or data available on the internet and portrayed here.