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what are the chances of portugal winning world cup in 2014

Portugal were not among the top favorites to win the 2014 World Cup. A reasonable pre-tournament estimate put their chances at about 3.9% , which made them a long shot compared with teams like Brazil and Spain.

Context

That number lines up with how Portugal were viewed going into the tournament: a talented side, but not one of the main title contenders. In the event itself, Portugal did not win the World Cup and were eliminated in the group stage after beating Ghana 2-1.

Simple read

  • Estimated chance to win before the tournament: about 3.9%.
  • What that meant: outside contender, not favorite.
  • Actual outcome: Portugal exited in the group stage.

Table

[9] [9] [9]
Team2014 Win Probability
Brazil35.9%
Portugal3.9%
France3.4%
TL;DR: Portugal’s chances in 2014 were low, around **4%** , and they ultimately fell short.