what do the most recent opinion polls show for wisconsin governor race

The most recent Wisconsin governor polling I could verify shows a narrow Democratic edge overall , but the race is still very early and the field is unsettled. The latest aggregate I found has Democrats at 45.3% to Republicans at 40.9% , a D+4.4 margin, based on three polls as of July 1, 2026.

What the latest numbers suggest

• The polling average points to Democrats holding a small lead in the open-seat race.

• The newest publicly reported individual data I found is more of a straw poll than a full statewide survey, and it had Lt. Gov. Sara Rodriguez leading the Democratic field with 27%.

• In that same straw poll, Francesca Hong had 23% , Kelda Roys 19% , and David Crowley 13%.

State of the race

Recent coverage suggests the Democratic primary is still fluid, with no clear front-runner and a large share of voters still undecided. One report said 65% of registered voters were undecided in an earlier Marquette poll, which is a sign the race had not fully taken shape yet. Another summary said recent polling showed “some separation” emerging among the top Democratic contenders, but not a settled hierarchy.

Important context

These numbers are mostly about the Democratic primary , not a finalized general-election matchup. The most useful takeaway right now is that the field is still open, and early polling is showing movement rather than a locked-in favorite. If you want the cleanest single-sentence read: Democrats currently have a modest statewide polling edge, while the primary remains competitive and undecided.

Metric| Latest read
---|---
Polling average| D 45.3%, R 40.9% 14
Average margin| D +4.4 14
Latest notable candidate result| Sara Rodriguez 27% in WisPolitics straw poll 15
Main uncertainty| Very high undecided share in earlier polling 3

TL;DR: recent Wisconsin governor polling shows a small Democratic lead overall, but the primary is still wide open and heavily unsettled.