What is the current projections for Social Security cola?
The current Social Security COLA for 2026 is 2.8% , already in effect for benefits payable in January 2026. The latest official SSA projection for future COLAs shows 2.7% for 2026 and 2.4% for 2027 under the Trustees’ intermediate assumptions, but the actual 2027 COLA will not be finalized until the third-quarter inflation data is available later this year.
What that means
- 2026 COLA: 2.8% actual increase, effective for December 2025 benefits and paid in January 2026.
- 2027 projection: SSA’s Trustees Report estimate is 2.4%.
- Other public forecasts: Some outside analysts are higher or lower than SSA’s estimate, with recent media reports citing forecasts ranging from 1.2% to 4.7% depending on inflation assumptions.
Quick context
COLA is tied to inflation, specifically changes in the CPI-W, and the final number is based on third-quarter inflation data. That means the 2027 projection can still move as inflation data changes over the next few months.
Example impact
SSA’s 2026 fact sheet shows the average retired worker benefit rising from $2,015 to $2,071 after the 2.8% COLA.
HTML version
| Year | Current status | Rate |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Official COLA | 2.8% |
| 2027 | SSA Trustees projection | 2.4% |