what was the polymarket prediction prior to the 2025 presidential election

Polymarket’s pre-election view for the 2025 U.S. presidential race was that Donald Trump was the favorite, with the market showing roughly a 58% chance for Trump versus about 42% for Kamala Harris in the days before the election, according to a contemporaneous report about Polymarket odds.

Quick context

That same report noted Polymarket had a separate “inauguration” style market, which would resolve based on who was actually sworn in on January 20, 2025 if election calls were delayed.

Important nuance

The exact percentage moved over time as bets came in, so the snapshot above reflects a late pre-election reading rather than a fixed final number.

Source note

For the broader Polymarket election pages, Polymarket also shows archived and current election markets, but the specific pre-2025 presidential snapshot most directly referenced in the results was the Trump-vs-Harris market described in the news coverage.