when will interest rates go down uk

In the UK, most forecasters expect interest rates to start edging down gradually through 2026, not to “crash” back to the ultra‑low levels seen before 2022.

Quick Scoop

• The Bank of England (BoE) base rate is around 3.75% as of early 2026.

• BoE guidance: if inflation keeps heading toward 2%, they expect to reduce rates further gradually , but won’t pre‑commit to exact dates.

• Several market and economist forecasts see the base rate drifting down toward about 3.25–3.5% by the end of 2026 , with the first cut of the year possible as early as March 2026.

• How fast and how far rates fall will depend on inflation, wage growth, and how weak the UK economy looks over the year.

• Mortgage lenders often move ahead of or independently of the BoE, so some mortgage rates could fall earlier, but not necessarily by the same amount as the base rate.

What the Bank of England is Saying

The BoE has held the base rate at about 3.75% after a long period of rises and some recent cuts. Inflation fell from around 3.4% at the end of 2025 and is expected to get close to the 2% target in spring 2026.

The BoE has explicitly said that if inflation stays on track , it should be able to gradually reduce interest rates further , but that it “can’t say precisely when or by how much” because it depends on incoming data. In other words, cuts are on the table, but not guaranteed on a fixed timetable.

Latest Predictions: 2026 Timeline

Different analysts and mortgage specialists are reading the data in similar ways: slow and cautious cuts rather than a quick plunge.

• Some predictions: base rate cut to 3.5% by around March 2026 (a 0.25% cut).

• Others: room for further cuts toward 3.25% by late 2026 if inflation eases and the economy stays soft.

• One forecasting group expects rates could be cut from 3.75% to about 3% during 2026 in a more optimistic scenario.

The official BoE meeting dates in 2026 include 19 March, 30 April, 18 June and 30 July , which are the main “decision points” markets are watching for cuts.

What This Means for Mortgages and Loans

Lower base rates usually push down mortgage and loan rates, but the relationship isn’t one‑to‑one.

• Lenders price in future expectations , so mortgage rates can start moving before a BoE cut if markets are confident rates are heading down.

• Many forecasts suggest mortgage rates could gradually ease through 2026 if base rate cuts materialise and inflation keeps cooling.

• However, spreads, lender competition, and funding costs mean mortgage deals might not fall by the full amount of any BoE cuts.

An example: some housing and mortgage specialists say lenders could trim rates in the coming weeks and months if markets stay steady and inflation trends lower, even before multiple BoE cuts have happened.

Forum‑Style View: What People Are Saying

On UK mortgage forums, a common theme is that no one can time it perfectly :

“If anyone knew they’d be the richest man alive. Something unexpected might happen.”

Typical forum viewpoints include:

• Some borrowers choose to lock in a rate now they can afford, rather than gamble on big future drops.

• Others prefer shorter fixes or trackers, hoping to benefit if rates come down over the next 1–2 years.

• Most commenters accept that 1–2% mortgage deals are unlikely to return soon; the “new normal” probably looks higher than the pre‑2022 era.

How to Think About It for Yourself

If you’re asking “when will interest rates go down UK” because of a remortgage or new home purchase, a practical way to frame it is:

1. Assume modest , not dramatic, cuts across 2026 (toward 3.25–3.5% base rate if forecasts are right).

2. Check what mortgage rates you can get today , and stress‑test your budget against slightly higher payments, not just hopeful lower ones.

3. Decide whether a shorter fix or tracker suits you if you want to benefit from possible cuts, or whether you prefer the certainty of a longer fix.

TL;DR: Interest rates in the UK are expected to start edging down further in 2026 , with markets pencilling in a small cut as early as March and base rate possibly ending the year around 3.25–3.5% if inflation behaves. Big, fast falls back to pre‑2022 lows look unlikely, and what matters most for you is how today’s real mortgage deals fit your budget and risk tolerance.

Information gathered from public forums or data available on the internet and portrayed here.