when will it start to warm up
Spring warmth is already showing early signs in southern US regions as of late January 2026, with forecasts pointing to a gradual shift nationwide by mid- February to March.
Southern US Warmup
Southern states like Texas, the Southeast, and California are set for above- normal temperatures through January and into February, thanks to lingering mild patterns post-December cold snaps.
This means highs could climb noticeably above seasonal averages by early February, easing the winter chill faster here than elsewhere.
Expect drier conditions too , which might worsen drought but speed up that "warming up" feel.
Northern US Delays
In contrast, the Northeast, Midwest, northern Plains, and Rockies face a tug- of-war, with cold air dominating into March—spring starts March 20, but persistent chill could linger until May.
Week 3-4 outlooks (Feb 14-27) predict below-normal temps in the Northeast and Upper Mississippi Valley under a deep trough.
La Niña's fade to neutral by late winter adds uncertainty, but northern snow and frost risks stay high early on.
Regional Timeline Table
Region| Expected Warmup Start| Key Factors 123
---|---|---
South/Southeast| Early February| Above-normal temps, quick transition
Southwest| Late January ongoing| Heat risks, drought fuel
Northeast/Midwest| Late March–May| Cold outbreaks, slow thaw
Northwest/Rockies| Mid-spring (April)| Delayed snowmelt, flooding watch
Paris/France (ex.)| March highs ~11°C| 4 hrs sun/day, rainy but brighter 5
Influencing Trends
- ENSO Shift : 75% chance of neutral conditions by March, favoring southern warmth and northern cool.
- Polar Vortex : Strengthening but less disruptive, reducing prolonged cold blasts.
- Precipitation Split : Wetter north (Pacific NW, Ohio Valley), drier south—impacting warmup speed.
TL;DR Bottom : Southern US warms first (Feb), north waits till spring proper; check local forecasts as La Niña wanes.
Information gathered from public forums or data available on the internet and portrayed here.