when will the iss fall to earth

The ISS is currently expected to be deorbited around 2030 , with the actual atmospheric reentry likely happening soon after that as part of a controlled descent, not a sudden crash.

What that means

NASA’s plan is to keep operating the station through the end of 2030, then use a dedicated deorbit spacecraft to lower it gradually and guide surviving debris toward a remote area of the South Pacific near Point Nemo.

Timing details

• The station will not “fall” all at once; the descent is expected to be managed over months.

• Some reports have described the final deorbit as occurring in January 2031 after retirement in 2030.

• Public reporting also says the full deorbit sequence could take about 12 to 18 months once the process begins.

Practical answer

So the short answer is: around 2030 to early 2031, depending on NASA’s final deorbit timeline. The event will be a controlled reentry, with most of the station expected to burn up and the rest aimed at an empty ocean corridor.