when will the next ice age happen
Scientists think that, under natural conditions, the next ice age would begin roughly 10,000–11,000 years from now, but human‑driven global warming is very likely delaying it by tens of thousands of years, and possibly preventing it altogether on that timescale.
When will the next ice age happen?
Short answer
- Natural orbital cycles suggest a new glacial period would normally start in about 10,000–11,000 years, with ice sheets growing and reaching a maximum tens of thousands of years after that.
- Because atmospheric CO₂ is now higher than at any time in at least 800,000 years, most climate scientists expect this next ice age to be postponed by at least tens of thousands of years and possibly 50,000–100,000 years or more.
How scientists make these predictions
Earth’s ice ages are linked to slow, predictable changes in its orbit and tilt, known as Milankovitch cycles. These orbital shifts alter how sunlight is distributed over the planet, especially in high northern latitudes where large ice sheets form.
By matching deep‑sea sediment records and ice‑sheet behavior over the last ~1 million years to these orbital changes, researchers have found a remarkably regular pattern of glacial cycles roughly every 100,000 years. In those reconstructions, the last major ice age ended about 11,700 years ago, putting the “natural” schedule for the next one roughly 10,000–11,000 years in the future.
One recent study described the pattern as so reproducible that they could predict when each past warm period and ice age started and ended, then extend that pattern forward in time.
What would happen without climate change?
If humans had not significantly altered greenhouse gas levels, the models suggest this rough sequence:
- Around 10,000–11,000 years from now, ice sheets would begin to grow again in the Northern Hemisphere.
- Over the following ~80,000–90,000 years, ice would expand, sea levels would fall, and a full glacial maximum would be reached.
- The glaciation would then end over about another 10,000 years, returning Earth to a warmer interglacial state.
Some studies narrow this further, estimating that without human influence the next glaciation would start within about 11,000 years and end around 66,000 years from now.
How human‑driven warming changes the timing
Here’s the critical twist: CO₂ and other greenhouse gases strongly affect whether ice sheets can grow.
- Current CO₂ levels are at their highest in at least 800,000 years, far above typical values during previous ice ages and warm periods.
- Modeling studies indicate that if CO₂ stays high, the cooling normally triggered by orbital cycles will not be enough to tip Earth into a new ice age.
Some expert assessments and policy‑oriented analyses argue that human‑caused warming is likely to delay the onset of the next ice age by 50,000–100,000 years or more, effectively skipping the “scheduled” glaciation. In plain language: as long as greenhouse gas levels remain elevated, the planet is locked into a prolonged warm state, not trending toward an ice‑covered one.
Different viewpoints and uncertainties
There is broad agreement on the big picture, but scientists still debate the exact timing and how strong human influence will be over such long timescales.
- Some studies emphasize that, on a purely natural trajectory, the next glaciation is due in about 10,000–11,000 years.
- Others stress that current and future CO₂ emissions almost certainly push that date much farther out, potentially beyond 50,000 years.
- There is also discussion about thresholds: how low CO₂ would need to fall, and for how long, before orbital cooling could again trigger large ice sheets.
Despite these uncertainties, virtually no recent work suggests a new ice age is imminent on human timescales (centuries to a few millennia). Instead, the near‑term concern is continued warming, not global glaciation.
Is this a trending topic and why?
The question “when will the next ice age happen” has been trending in recent years because it connects several hot‑button issues:
- Climate anxiety and extreme weather events in the 2020s and mid‑2020s.
- Viral claims online that an ice age is “coming soon,” which scientists repeatedly refute.
- New research papers (and popular science articles) published around 2024–2025 that sharpened predictions for the natural timing of ice ages and highlighted how human emissions are disrupting those cycles.
Forum discussions and Q&A threads often mix genuine curiosity (how Earth’s cycles work) with misinformation (claims that a new ice age will start “next decade”), so experts frequently step in to clarify that the next natural ice age is very distant and is being pushed even further away by our current emissions.
Key facts table
Below is a concise overview of the main points.
| Question | Best current scientific view |
|---|---|
| Natural timing of next ice age (no human influence) | Ice sheets would begin growing in about 10,000–11,000 years, with a full glacial maximum tens of thousands of years later. | [9][1][3][5][7]
| Effect of current CO₂ levels | Elevated greenhouse gases disrupt the natural cycle and likely prevent glaciation on the expected schedule. | [1][5][7][9]
| Shift in timing due to humans | Many experts expect a delay of at least tens of thousands of years; some estimates suggest 50,000–100,000 years or more. | [6][7][9]
| Risk of an ice age “soon” | No evidence for an imminent ice age; near‑term risk is continued warming, not global glaciation. | [3][5][7][9][1]
| Main drivers of ice‑age cycles | Slow changes in Earth’s orbit and tilt (Milankovitch cycles), amplified by feedbacks like ice‑albedo and greenhouse gases. | [5][7][9][3]
TL;DR
Under natural conditions, Earth’s next ice age would likely start in about 10,000–11,000 years, but human‑driven climate change has probably postponed it for at least tens of thousands of years, and potentially for 50,000–100,000 years or longer.
Information gathered from public forums or data available on the internet and portrayed here.