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who is going to win the golden boot

At the 2026 FIFA World Cup, the Golden Boot race is a three-way tie at the top, with Lionel Messi, Kylian Mbappé, and Erling Haaland each on seven goals as the tournament heads into the quarter-finals.

Latest standings (as of early July 2026)

  • Kylian Mbappé (France) – 7 goals, 2 assists
  • Lionel Messi (Argentina) – 7 goals, 0 assists
  • Erling Haaland (Norway) – 7 goals, 0 assists
  • Harry Kane (England) – 6 goals, 1 assist
  • Ousmane Dembélé (France) – 4 goals, 2 assists
  • Mikel Oyarzabal (Spain) – 4 goals, 1 assist

Mbappé currently leads the internal tiebreaker because he has more assists than Messi and Haaland , should the tournament end with them level on goals.

How the Golden Boot is decided

FIFA’s rules for the Golden Boot are:

  1. Most goals wins.
  1. If tied on goals, most assists breaks the tie.
  1. If still tied, the player with the fewest minutes played (i.e., better goals-per-minute ratio) wins.

That means if the top three all finish on seven goals, Mbappé would be favourite unless someone adds more goals or assists in the remaining matches.

Who looks most likely to win?

Form and context from the knockout stage point to three main angles:

  • Mbappé
    • Already has the assist edge.
* France are deep into the tournament and he’s their main penalty and attacking focus, giving him more chances to add goals.
  • Messi
    • On seven with no assists so far, so he’d need more goals to overtake Mbappé if France go far.
* Argentina’s style still funnels a lot of chances through him, especially in tight knockout games.
  • Haaland
    • Also on seven, zero assists; his double against Brazil shows he’s peaking at the right time.
* Norway’s path will decide how many games (and chances) he gets; if they reach the final, he could easily pass seven.
  • Harry Kane
    • One goal behind on six, but England are strong and he takes penalties, so he’s very much in it if they go deep.

Safe speculation (based on current data)

Given where things stand:

  • If the tournament ends with the top scorers on seven goals , Mbappé is the statistical favourite because of his two assists.
  • If anyone among Messi, Haaland, or Kane adds even one more goal in the quarter-final, semi, or final, they can jump ahead on pure goal count.
  • Betting markets and models have been treating Mbappé and Kane as slight favourites, with Haaland and Messi just behind, reflecting both current tallies and expected future chances.

So, “who is going to win the Golden Boot?” right now points to Mbappé if the race stays tight on seven, but it’s realistically a four-man shootout between Mbappé, Messi, Haaland, and Kane depending on who scores in the last few games.

TL;DR: As of early July 2026, Mbappé, Messi, and Haaland are tied on seven goals; Mbappé leads on assists and is the current favourite, but one more goal from any of them (or Kane) could decide it.

Information gathered from public forums or data available on the internet and portrayed here.