who is gonna win the ballon d'or 2025

Nobody can say with certainty who will win the Ballon d’Or 2025, because the award is decided after the full 2024–25 season and major tournaments are done, but the clear consensus favorite ended up being Ousmane Dembélé, with Lamine Yamal very close behind in most discussions and prediction models.

Quick Scoop

• Ousmane Dembélé was described as the “overwhelming favorite” for the 2025 Ballon d’Or by multiple prediction roundups, with around 80–85% of sources or betting models having him first.

• Lamine Yamal appeared in the top three of a large majority of prediction lists and betting markets, often seen as the main challenger if Dembélé’s team slipped at key moments.

• Later power‑ranking articles that looked ahead to 2026 explicitly referenced “fans celebrating Ousmane Dembele’s 2025 Ballon d’Or win,” strongly implying that he did, in fact, take the 2025 award.

So, if you’re asking “who is gonna win the Ballon d’Or 2025,” the best answer, reflecting how the race played out and how later sources refer back to it, is: Ousmane Dembélé is the likeliest and most widely cited winner , with Lamine Yamal as the standout alternative name in the conversation.

Main contenders people talked about

From prediction aggregators, betting-discussion threads, and power‑ranking pieces, these names came up the most:

• Ousmane Dembélé (PSG & France) – Massive club season, front‑runner in most models and fan debates.

• Lamine Yamal (Barcelona & Spain) – Teen star with huge goal+assist numbers and multiple domestic trophies, widely tipped to make history if Dembélé stumbled.

• Mohamed Salah (Liverpool & Egypt) – Consistent elite output, always hovering in the top group of “if the favorites slip” candidates.

• Vitinha, Raphinha, Pedri, Mbappé, Hakimi – Frequently listed in extended rankings and fan probability breakdowns, but a step behind the two main headliners in most scenarios.

A typical fan‑odds breakdown post even framed it as “Dembele and Lamine Yamal significantly ahead of the others,” with the rest sharing much smaller implied chances.

How people were “predicting” it

Commentary and prediction pieces kept circling around a few key factors :

• Club success: Champions League runs, domestic titles, and big‑match moments.
• Individual stats: Goals, assists, and decisive contributions in high‑stakes games.
• Consistency: Performing at a high level across the entire season, not just in one hot streak.
• Narrative and hype: Media coverage, viral moments, and the “story” around a player’s year.

One analysis‑style page even explicitly collated prediction sources and stated that Dembélé was ranked first by the large majority of them, while Yamal appeared in nearly every top‑three list.

Simple take

If you just want a straight, forum‑style answer to “who is gonna win the Ballon d’Or 2025” based on how the conversation and later references shaped up:

Most signs and later write‑ups point to Ousmane Dembélé as the 2025 Ballon d’Or winner, with Lamine Yamal recognized as the closest rival in that race.

Information gathered from public forums or data available on the internet and portrayed here.