who is winning the war in ukraine

Nobody is clearly “winning” the war in Ukraine right now; Russia has the initiative on the battlefield and is slowly advancing, but at very high cost, while Ukraine is under pressure yet still resisting and holding key areas.

The battlefield picture (early 2026)

• Russia controls more territory overall and has made incremental gains in parts of eastern and southern Ukraine, including continued pressure in Donetsk, Zaporizhia and areas of Kharkiv oblast.

• These gains are generally described as slow or “snail’s pace,” with high Russian casualties reported for relatively small advances.

• Ukraine has lost some towns and cities, and its energy infrastructure has been heavily damaged by large-scale missile and drone strikes, especially over the winter of 2025–2026.

• At the same time, Ukrainian forces continue to conduct drone and missile strikes deep into Russian-held territory and Russia itself, showing they still have meaningful capabilities.

Military balance and momentum

• Russia currently has the initiative on many parts of the front, meaning it is more often on the offensive while Ukraine is largely defending and trying to stabilize lines.

• Russian forces have been able to sustain large-scale missile and drone campaigns and to slowly push the front line in some sectors, which suggests a relative advantage in manpower and industrial output.

• However, these offensives come with very high reported Russian casualties, and gains are measured in small settlements rather than major strategic breakthroughs.

• Ukraine’s ability to resist depends heavily on continued Western support (weapons, ammunition, funding); uncertainty or delays in that support directly affect its battlefield position and planning.

Politics and negotiations

• As of February 2026, both sides are signaling about negotiations but from very different positions and with incompatible demands.

• Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has talked about possible compromises within a broader security framework, including ideas like a temporary ceasefire tied to guarantees, but still rejects recognizing Russian annexations as legitimate.

• Russian officials publicly insist Ukraine must accept significant territorial losses and political concessions, and Moscow uses both military pressure and propaganda to claim that continued resistance is futile.

• Trilateral talks involving the US, Ukraine, and Russia have started in Geneva, but there is no clear path yet to an agreed peace, and fighting continues during these discussions.

How analysts answer “who is winning?”

Many serious military analysts avoid saying either side is simply “winning,” and instead break it down like this:

• Territory: Russia is ahead, holding and slowly expanding occupied areas in the east and south.

• Casualties and cost: Russia is also paying a very high price in personnel and equipment for limited gains, which raises questions about long-term sustainability.

• Strategic goals:
  • Russia has not achieved its original political goals (full control of Ukraine, regime change in Kyiv, or forcing Ukraine into its orbit).

* Ukraine has prevented its own collapse and retained an independent government, but has not yet restored its 2014 borders and is currently on the back foot in several sectors.

• Long term: The eventual outcome will depend heavily on:
  • How long Western aid to Ukraine continues and at what scale
  • Russia’s ability to keep mobilizing men and producing weapons under sanctions
  • Domestic political stability in both countries and their main backers

A simple way to think about it

You can think of the current situation as a grinding, high-cost stalemate with a slight Russian advantage in momentum:

• Russia is “ahead on the map” and pushing slowly forward.
• Ukraine is “ahead” in that it has survived and kept its state intact, but is under growing strain and at risk if support or manpower falter.
• Neither side has secured a decisive victory, and the war is still very much undecided.

Bottom line: Russia is currently doing better in terms of territorial gains and offensive initiative, but at a huge cost and without achieving its strategic goals, so it is not accurate to say that either side is clearly winning the war in Ukraine at this stage.

Information gathered from public forums or data available on the internet and portrayed here.