who will win mvp nfl

February 15, 2026

There’s no official answer yet on who will win NFL MVP; we can only talk about favorites and probabilities, not certainties.

Where the race stands

For the 2025 NFL season (award handed out in early 2026), most recent odds and expert pieces have Matthew Stafford at or near the top of the board, with Drake Maye close behind and a clear gap to everyone else. Betting markets and awards voters both tend to reward elite quarterback seasons on teams that win a lot of games, which fits both Stafford and Maye this year.

Leading candidates

Matthew Stafford, QB, Rams – Listed as the betting favorite late in the season and widely projected as the likely MVP after earning first‑team All‑Pro at quarterback, with one prediction piece flatly calling him the expected winner. The case for him leans on a strong Rams record plus top‑tier traditional stats and the historical link between first‑team All‑Pro QB and MVP.

Drake Maye, QB, Patriots – Framed by several analysts as essentially neck‑and‑neck with Stafford, and in at least one expert panel he actually edges Stafford in their MVP vote. Maye’s argument is built on efficiency metrics (league‑leading completion percentage, yards per attempt, passer rating, and EPA per dropback), which some voters value heavily.

A few outlets and shows also mention names like Josh Allen and others when discussing the broader MVP “race,” but these are usually framed as trailing candidates or earlier‑season storylines rather than current co‑favorites.

So, who will win?

Putting all that together, if you’re asking “who will win MVP NFL,” the most realistic answer right now is:

The most likely winner, based on odds and many written predictions, is Matthew Stafford.

There is still a real path where voters lean into advanced metrics and Drake Maye pulls the upset, as at least one expert panel already picked him.

Because the ballots and final announcement are not public yet, anything beyond “Stafford is the favorite, Maye is the main challenger” would be speculation rather than fact.

Quick forum‑style take

If you’re trying to guess “who will win MVP NFL” right now, the smart chalk pick is Stafford, with Maye as the high‑upside contrarian angle.

Mini FAQ

Is the MVP race already decided?
Not officially; voters’ ballots aren’t all public, and different expert panels still split Stafford vs. Maye.

Is it ever not a QB?
Yes, but rarely—odds and coverage for this season overwhelmingly center on quarterbacks, especially these two.

Information gathered from public forums or data available on the internet and portrayed here.