who will win the american express golf tournament

No one can say with certainty who will win the American Express this week, but betting markets and expert previews make Scottie Scheffler the clear favorite, with a cluster of strong contenders and popular long shots behind him.

Current betting favorites

Recent odds for the 2026 American Express put one name clearly out front.

• Scottie Scheffler is the heavy favorite, with prices around +290 to +300, reflecting his status as world No. 1 and recent winning form.

• Ben Griffin, Ludvig Åberg and Russell Henley sit in the next tier of contenders in the +2000 to +2200 range, indicating solid chances but far below Scheffler’s implied win probability.

• Other notable names in the main pack include Sam Burns, Robert MacIntyre, Patrick Cantlay, Si Woo Kim, Matt Fitzpatrick and Sepp Straka, generally between about +2500 and +4000.

These numbers do not guarantee results but show how both sportsbooks and many model-driven analysts rate the field heading into Thursday.

Popular expert and forum angles

Analysts and bettors are split between “ride the favorite” and “hunt value.”

• Many previews highlight Scheffler as the straightforward pick: elite tee‑to‑green game, recent wins, and a layout that rewards his ability to go low over four days.

• Value‑seekers often point to players like Matt Fitzpatrick, Alex Noren, Si Woo Kim, J.T. Poston, Akshay Bhatia or Sepp Straka, whose odds are much longer but whose recent stats, course history, or desert form fit the event’s birdie‑fest profile.

• Some expert sheets specifically fade Wyndham Clark in outrights and head‑to‑heads, suggesting his current form and fit for this three‑course setup may not justify even mid‑range odds.

From a “who will win the American Express golf tournament” perspective, this translates into a market view that it is Scheffler versus the field, with a lot of noise and variance underneath.

Course fit and scoring style

The American Express is known as a low‑scoring shootout across multiple courses in La Quinta, which shapes predictions.

• Winners typically push deep into the 20‑under‑par range, favoring players who pile up birdies rather than just avoid bogeys.

• Strokes‑gained models often highlight guys who rate highly in approach, par‑5 scoring, and birdie‑or‑better percentage over their last 24–36 rounds; this is precisely why Scheffler and a few data‑model darlings like Åberg and some mid‑tier Europeans pop up on many cards.

• Sepp Straka, last year’s winner, is occasionally mentioned as a potential repeat threat given his 25‑under performance in 2025 and a strong showing against Scheffler in the Hero World Challenge.

This style of event introduces volatility: one insanely hot putting week from a mid‑tier player can upset the chalk.

Multiple viewpoints: who might win?

Putting the market odds, analytics, and narrative angles together, different “answers” emerge to the question of who will win.

• Conservative view (most likely, not most profitable)
  • Pick: Scottie Scheffler
  • Reason: Best player in the field, clear betting favorite, metrics and recent wins support him; your edge is low because the price already reflects all that.

• Value hunter view (chasing better payouts)
  • Picks often mentioned: Matt Fitzpatrick, Si Woo Kim, Alex Noren, J.T. Poston, Akshay Bhatia, Sepp Straka.

* Reason: Odds from roughly 30‑1 to 80‑1 give more upside if they catch a hot week, and they fit different “desert/scoring” angles that modelers like.

• Narrative / storyline view
  • Fans in forums and previews often gravitate toward recognizable names (Scheffler, Cantlay, Fitzpatrick) or comeback arcs, hoping for a headline‑friendly win that kicks off 2026 with hype.

Even with all of that, the event has enough randomness that a lesser‑known name could easily emerge, as has happened in previous editions.

Safe speculation and quick takeaway

So, who will win the American Express golf tournament? The most probable answer by odds is Scottie Scheffler, but the most interesting answers lie in the mid‑tier group of Fitzpatrick, Åberg, Noren, Si Woo Kim, Poston, Bhatia, and Straka if you are comfortable with more risk.

In plain terms: Scheffler is the smart “favorite” pick, but the tournament is wide open enough that a bold long shot could make this week memorable.

TL;DR: No one can be certain who will win, but markets strongly lean toward Scheffler, while data‑driven bettors are sprinkling on mid‑tier names like Fitzpatrick, Åberg, Noren, Si Woo Kim, Poston, Bhatia, and Straka for bigger potential returns.

Information gathered from public forums or data available on the internet and portrayed here.