who will win the coin toss super bowl
Nobody actually knows who will win the Super Bowl coin toss, and there is no reliable way to predict it in advance. It is effectively a 50/50 event between the two teams and between heads and tails, no matter what the “trends” look like over time.
Quick Scoop: Can you predict it?
Sportsbooks list odds on:
- Which team wins the coin toss (this year: Seahawks vs. Patriots, both priced almost identically around -103 to -105).
- Which side lands: heads or tails (also around -103 each way).
Those prices basically treat the toss as a fair coin: bookmakers shave a little for house edge, but they are not implying any true advantage for either side or any team.
History: Heads, tails, and “trends”
Over the first 59 Super Bowls, the coin has landed:
- Tails 32 times
- Heads 27 times
Some years produce streaks (like heads running five in a row from 2009–2013), but that does not change the underlying probability of the next flip; it just looks interesting in hindsight. In recent seasons, there have also been stretches where the team that wins the toss ends up losing the game more often than not, which feeds the “coin-toss curse” narrative, but that’s still well within what you’d expect from random chance.
In forum-style discussions and betting chats, most serious bettors will tell you the same thing: the coin toss is independent, random, and not “beatable” in a meaningful way.
So… who will win it?
If you’re looking for an actual “pick,” the honest answer is that any specific prediction (like “Seahawks will win the toss” or “tails will land”) is just a guess dressed up as insight. The numbers, history tables, and betting markets all line up behind the idea that:
- Each team has about an equal chance to win the toss.
- Heads and tails are effectively 50/50 over the long run.
A fun, defensible approach many fans take is:
- “Tails never fails” (backed by that slight historical edge, 32–27), or
- Pick the team you’re already rooting for, just to stay consistent.
But none of that actually changes the math; it just makes the moment more fun.
Trending context and how people bet it
Right now, the coin toss remains one of the most popular novelty props every Super Bowl:
- It settles instantly, before kickoff.
- Payouts are small and the edge favors the house, but the sweat is huge for a few seconds.
Media pieces and betting sites highlight:
- Ongoing heads vs. tails records.
- How often the toss winner has gone on to win or lose the game.
- Prop odds for this year’s matchup, which are almost perfectly even for both sides and both teams.
Bottom line
For your question “who will win the coin toss Super Bowl,” the only truthful stance is: no one can know; it’s a pure flip. History leans slightly toward tails and this year’s lines have Seahawks and Patriots essentially equal to win the toss, but any specific prediction is just a fun shot in the dark, not a real edge.
Information gathered from public forums or data available on the internet and portrayed here.