No, the U.S. government is not currently in a shutdown as of January 28, 2026, but a partial shutdown looms large with a critical deadline just days away.

Shutdown Clock Ticking

Federal funding for key agencies expires January 30, 2026 —that's this Friday. Congress passed some spending bills after last year's record 43-day closure (October-November 2025), but nine major appropriations remain unresolved under a continuing resolution. Prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket show sharply rising odds (up dramatically this week) of disruption, fueled by partisan gridlock.

What Sparked This Crisis?

The trigger: Fatal shooting of Alex Pretti in Minneapolis by federal agents (DHS/ICE), sparking Democratic outrage.

  • Senate Democrats, led by Chuck Schumer, vow to block DHS funding over the incident and Trump administration immigration enforcement.
  • House passed a $1.2 trillion package Thursday including DHS/Defense, but Senate needs 60 votes to overcome filibuster—requiring bipartisan buy-in Republicans lack alone (53-47 majority).
  • Snowstorms delayed votes; House recesses until February, complicating fixes.

"I think we're going to probably end up in another Democrat shutdown" – President Trump , January 22 interview.

What Happens If It Shuts Down?

A partial shutdown (not total) would furlough hundreds of thousands while "essential" services continue:

Affected| Status| Examples
---|---|---
Parks/National Monuments| Closed to public| No Smithsonian access 9
Federal Workers| Furloughed (800K+ last time) or unpaid| IRS refunds delayed 9
Mandatory Programs| Unaffected| Social Security, Medicare 9
DHS/ICE/Border Patrol| Minimal operations| Back pay eventually 5

Economic hit : Last shutdown cost $11B+; this one risks similar amid recovery.

Can They Avoid It? Multiple Views

  • Optimists (White House/GOP) : Blame Democrats; expect last-minute CR (continuing resolution).
  • Pessimists (Dems/Markets) : Pretti killing makes compromise toxic—shutdown probable.
  • Analysts : Senate vote this week is make-or-break; any Senate changes bounce back to House.

President Trump predicts failure, but history shows 20+ shutdowns since 1976 often end in deals.

Timeline & Next Steps

  1. Today-Wed (1/28) : Senate debates funding package.
  2. Thu-Fri (1/29-30) : Final votes needed.
  3. Sat (1/31+) : Partial shutdown if no deal.

Stay tuned —news moves fast. White House tracks via shutdown clock.

TL;DR Bottom : No shutdown yet , but Jan 30 deadline + DHS fight = high risk. Pretti backlash drives Dem blockade; markets bet on trouble.

Information gathered from public forums or data available on the internet and portrayed here.