As of early 2026, the tropical Pacific is in a weak La Niña phase, but models show it is already fading and is expected to transition back to “ENSO‑neutral” (neither El Niño nor La Niña) sometime between about January and March 2026.

Quick Scoop

  • A weak La Niña developed in late 2025 and is still influencing global patterns right now.
  • Forecasts give around a two‑thirds chance that conditions return to neutral (no El Niño or La Niña) by late winter or very early spring 2026.
  • The chance of switching straight into El Niño in the next few months is very low; that would be more of a later‑2026 discussion if warming continues.

What that means in plain language

  • La Niña = cooler‑than‑average waters in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific plus a shift in winds and rainfall patterns.
  • El Niño = warmer‑than‑average waters there, with broadly opposite typical impacts on global rainfall and temperature patterns.
  • Neutral = the Pacific isn’t clearly in either camp, and seasonal patterns become a bit harder to predict.

Why forecasts sound “hedged”

  • Climate centers talk in probabilities (like “55% chance of weak La Niña” or “68% chance of neutral by Jan–Mar”) because ENSO shifts are gradual and can wobble.
  • Even after sea‑surface temperatures hit neutral, the atmosphere can “remember” La Niña for a while, so La‑Niña‑like influences may linger into early spring 2026.

Recent and trending chatter

  • Recent outlooks and explainer pieces for winter 2025–26 have focused on how this weak La Niña might shape winter in North America and other regions, with many noting it’s not a “classic” strong event.
  • Some seasonal outlooks already frame 2026 as a potential transition year: fade La Niña → go neutral → possible tilt toward El Niño later in the year if Pacific warming continues. Speculative, but under active discussion.

Information gathered from public forums or data available on the internet and portrayed here.