Groundhog Day 2026 falls on Monday, February 2, and as of now the actual groundhog “predictions” are just about to happen or are being streamed live, so any specific outcome (shadow vs. no shadow) for 2026 is still uncertain.

Groundhog Day 2026 Predictions

Quick basics for 2026

  • Groundhog Day 2026 is on Monday, February 2, with the main ceremony at Gobbler’s Knob in Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania.
  • Punxsutawney Phil’s big moment typically happens shortly after sunrise; festivities are scheduled to start around 6 a.m. Eastern, with the formal prognostication a little later.
  • Other “celebrity” groundhogs like Georgia’s General Beauregard “Beau” Lee, Michigan’s Woody, and Yonah the Groundhog in North Georgia are also making forecasts that morning at their own local events.

Folklore rule of thumb:

  • Sees shadow → six more weeks of winter.
  • No shadow → “early” spring.

Because Groundhog Day 2026 is happening now (or just about to), early coverage focuses more on how and when to watch than on the final result.

What do we expect for 2026?

Since Phil hasn’t officially “spoken” yet for 2026 in the sources available, any forecast is still speculative. However, you can think of 2026 predictions along three layers:

  1. Phil’s folklore call (shadow vs. no shadow)
    • Outcome for 2026 is explicitly listed as “remains to be seen” in recent coverage.
 * Historically, Phil has seen his shadow far more often than not (over 100 times vs. about 20 no-shadow calls since the late 1800s), so if you’re betting on pattern alone, “six more weeks of winter” is the more likely folklore outcome.
  1. Other groundhogs’ calls
    • General Beauregard Lee in Georgia is highlighted as having a higher claimed accuracy than Phil, with some reports putting him around 60–63% over the 2000s and 2010s, and local promoters even claiming near 90% accuracy.
 * Expect at least a few groundhogs to “disagree,” with some predicting early spring and others calling for more winter—this contrast is part of the annual fun.
  1. Serious meteorology vs. folklore
    • Long-range outlooks from sources like the Farmers’ Almanac describe winter 2025–26 as hanging on, with a “wet winter whirlwind” taking time to unwind, implying that winter isn’t expected to disappear quickly even if Phil calls for early spring.

So, if you combine tradition and seasonal outlooks, the “meta-prediction” for 2026 is: the show will be lively, Phil will most likely lean winterward (based on history), and actual weather will still follow large-scale patterns more than a single marmot.

Accuracy and hype (why people still care)

A big part of the 2026 buzz is the gap between the legend and the stats:

  • Phil’s long-term accuracy is usually cited around 39% overall since 1887, and roughly 30% over the last decade or so.
  • NOAA and similar agencies emphasize that forecasting an entire country’s spring with one groundhog is almost guaranteed to be off a lot of the time because the U.S. climate is so diverse.
  • Other groundhogs sometimes test better in limited samples: General Beau Lee has been credited with about 60–63% accuracy over certain time windows, and in one study he outperformed Phil’s mid-40s accuracy during 2012–2021.

Despite the middling track record, interest spikes each year—especially on social media and forums—as a sort of light ritual that marks the midpoint between the winter solstice and the spring equinox. People treat it less as a serious forecast and more as a meme-able national in-joke.

What’s trending in 2026 discussion?

Forum and news chatter around “groundhog day 2026 predictions” tends to revolve around:

  • Livestreams & watch parties
    • Punxsutawney’s event is streamed online, with outlets like Visit Pennsylvania and national media hosting feeds starting very early in the morning.
* Local centers (for example, Michigan’s Howell Nature Center for Woody) promote community breakfasts, games, and educational talks around their groundhog’s prediction.
  • Climate and warm-winter jokes
    • Recent years where Phil predicted six more weeks of winter but the actual late winter and early spring were near-normal or warmer-than-average (like 2025) are fueling jokes that Phil is “on a cold streak.”
  • Which groundhog to trust?
    • Debates over Phil vs. regional “rivals” such as Beau and Woody, with fans posting historic accuracy stats, are a recurring theme.

You’ll also see people mix in real outlooks from seasonal forecasts with the folklore, treating the groundhog call as the ceremonial headline and the meteorologists as the fine print.

Mini FAQ for 2026

Is Groundhog Day 2026 earlier or later than usual?

  • It’s right on schedule: February 2 is always Groundhog Day.

Does “six more weeks of winter” mean it will be cold exactly six weeks?

  • No. It’s a symbolic way of saying “winter sticks around,” and real weather varies by region and by year.

Who is “winning” among groundhog forecasters?

  • Depending on which study you cite, Beau in Georgia appears to have a better hit rate than Phil in recent years, but samples are small and methods differ.

TL;DR: For Groundhog Day 2026, the ceremonies are set for the morning of Monday, February 2, with Phil and several regional groundhogs delivering their calls live, but the concrete 2026 shadow/no-shadow verdicts are just happening now, and historically Phil’s accuracy is closer to a coin flip than a scientific forecast.

Information gathered from public forums or data available on the internet and portrayed here.