Baltimore (the Ravens) can still make the playoffs, but they need to keep winning and get a bit of help in the AFC playoff race.

Where Baltimore stands now

  • The Ravens are 7–7 going into Week 16, having climbed back from a 1–5 start to get back into the postseason conversation.
  • Betting markets and analytics sites put their current playoff odds in roughly the mid‑40% range to just under 50%, reflecting a true coin‑flip scenario.
  • Models from league tracking and sportsbooks show their probability jumped heavily after the Week 15 win over the Bengals, moving from the mid‑30s to near 50%.

Two basic paths: division or wild card

Baltimore can qualify either by winning the AFC North or grabbing a wild‑card spot.

  • AFC North title path :
    • At 6–7 earlier in December, the “easiest” path was to win the division because the wild‑card race is crowded.
* The Steelers hold a slim lead and the current tiebreaker edge, but Baltimore still has a direct shot to flip that with their Week 18 head‑to‑head game, as long as they stay within one game in the standings.
  • Wild‑card path :
    • If the Ravens fall short in the division, they must out‑pace a pack of similar‑record AFC teams for one of the final wild‑card spots.
* That means every remaining game is effectively a playoff game, especially against other AFC opponents that influence conference‑record tiebreakers.

Key things Baltimore must do

Think of the rest of the Ravens’ schedule as a checklist. To “make the playoffs,” they essentially need to:

  1. Win the “must‑win” remaining games
    • Their Week 16 matchup against the Patriots is explicitly described as a must‑win to keep their playoff hopes realistic.
 * Dropping that game would drag their odds back toward long‑shot territory, while a win keeps both the division and wild card pathways open.
  1. Beat Pittsburgh in Week 18
    • Because Pittsburgh currently holds the head‑to‑head tiebreaker, the Week 18 Ravens–Steelers rematch is enormous for the AFC North race.
 * If Baltimore stays within one game and wins that finale, they can swing both the head‑to‑head result and the division standings in their favor.
  1. Stack AFC wins for tiebreakers
    • Tiebreakers go through head‑to‑head, then division record, then common games, then conference record.
 * The Ravens already saw their tiebreaker situation flip once this year after losing to Pittsburgh, so wins against AFC teams down the stretch are critical to rebuild those edges.
  1. Survive a tough remaining schedule
    • Their remaining slate is rated as one of the more challenging in the league, with opponents like the Patriots and a winning‑record Packers team still on the board.
 * Navigating that successfully likely requires at least a strong finish (for example, 3–1 or better in their final games) to stay ahead of other AFC contenders.

What outside help they need

Even if Baltimore takes care of business, scoreboard‑watching will matter.

  • For the division :
    • They need the Steelers to drop at least one other game (or more, depending on how results line up) so that a Week 18 Ravens win can flip the AFC North.
* Losses by the Steelers in non‑Ravens games re‑open the door that the earlier tiebreaker swing had partially closed.
  • For a wild card :
    • Losses by other AFC middle‑tier teams (those sitting around the 6–7 to 8–6 range) help clear space in the standings.
* Because the AFC is tightly bunched, one or two key upsets in other games can move Baltimore’s odds several percentage points in either direction.

Why the odds moved so much

Baltimore’s season has been a roller coaster, which is why you see playoff odds jumping around instead of staying steady.

  • The Ravens started 1–5 with Lamar Jackson missing time, at which point most models had their playoff hopes near life‑support.
  • A five‑game winning streak with Jackson back healthy vaulted them into first place in the AFC North in late November and pushed some projections as high as about 80% to make the postseason around Week 13.
  • Recent losses and the Steelers’ surge pulled those odds back down, creating the current “coin‑flip” outlook going into the final stretch.

TL;DR: For Baltimore to make the playoffs, they almost certainly need to win out or drop at most one more game, beat the Steelers in Week 18, and get a bit of help from other AFC teams losing, especially Pittsburgh and the cluster of wild‑card contenders.

Information gathered from public forums or data available on the internet and portrayed here.