South Korea can still advance only through a narrow third-place path, and the outlook is now very slim. The key results it would have needed were favorable outcomes in other group matches, especially Ghana over Croatia, Uzbekistan avoiding a loss to DR Congo, and Austria beating Algeria or winning by a large enough margin.

What had to happen

South Korea was on 3 points, so its chances depended on staying ahead of other third-place teams on points and goal difference. That meant it needed at least two of the following to go its way: Ghana beating Croatia, Uzbekistan defeating or drawing DR Congo, and Austria defeating Algeria or Algeria losing by two or more goals.

Why it was so difficult

The expanded World Cup format lets the eight best third-place teams advance, but the cutoff is still tight and goal difference matters a lot. Reports on June 27 showed South Korea already slipping behind the qualification line, with one source saying its chances had fallen sharply and another saying it was knocked out.

Current read

Based on the latest match reports, South Korea’s path was effectively closed once DR Congo’s result pushed the standings beyond what South Korea could catch. In practical terms, that meant the team no longer controlled its fate and needed multiple simultaneous upsets that did not materialize.

Standings context

TeamStatusPointsGoal difference
DR CongoQualified4+1
IranIn contention30
South KoreaEliminated3-1
ScotlandEliminated3-3
[11] South Korea’s best-case route was always a chain of favorable results elsewhere, not just one win. By the latest reports, that chain broke, so advancement was no longer realistic.