Gas is already getting more expensive in early 2026 and could get significantly pricier in the short term, but most expert forecasts do not expect “apocalyptic” prices to last over the longer run.

How expensive is gas right now?

  • Benchmark gasoline futures are around 2.90 USD per gallon as of March 12, 2026, up over 50% in just a month and about 36% versus a year ago.
  • AAA’s national average for regular gas in the US is about 3.45 USD per gallon as of March 8, 2026.
  • Some analysts note that this rapid run‑up is tied to geopolitical tensions and supply fears, not just everyday demand.

In plain language: you’re not imagining it — the jump at the pump over the last few weeks is very real.

Near‑term: Could we see record prices?

Several signals say “it could happen, but it’s not guaranteed”:

  1. Prediction markets & odds
    • One major prediction market is pricing roughly a 64% chance that the US national average hits 4.50 USD per gallon by the end of March 2026.
 * The same market gives about a 36% chance of 5 USD per gallon, close to the prior record of about 5.02 USD.
  1. Why prices are spiking
    • Rising tensions near key oil routes (like the Strait of Hormuz) are driving worries that supply could be disrupted, which pushes oil and gas prices higher.
 * When crude oil traders fear future shortages, prices can move fast, and retail gas follows with a lag.
  1. What mainstream forecasters say
    • Some coverage suggests gas could hit around 4 USD nationally in the near term but stay below “apocalyptic” levels above previous highs, assuming no extreme escalation in conflict.

So in the short run , it’s realistic to prepare for 4+ USD nationally, with a non‑trivial chance of flirting with 5 USD if supply fears worsen.

Rest of 2026: Is this the new normal?

Even with the current spike, several forecasts still see 2026 as relatively moderate on average:

  • One major fuel‑savings platform projects an average US gas price around 2.97 USD per gallon for 2026, which would actually make it one of the cheaper years since the Covid era.
  • The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects crude prices (Brent and WTI) to ease back later in 2026, with Brent dropping below 80 USD per barrel in the third quarter and toward about 70 USD by late 2026.
  • Lower or stabilizing crude typically feeds through to somewhat lower gasoline prices after a lag, unless new supply shocks hit.

Translation:

  • Short bursts of very high prices are possible, especially during geopolitical flare‑ups or hurricane season.
  • But the base‑case view is not “permanently 5+ USD gas”; instead, it’s a year that averages closer to 3 USD, with painful spikes along the way.

Natural gas vs gasoline (quick clarification)

You might see a lot of “gas price prediction” headlines that are actually about natural gas , not gasoline:

  • Some 2026 projections put US benchmark natural gas (Henry Hub) in the roughly 3.50–5.00 USD per MMBtu range, depending on the forecaster.
  • These are mainly about heating, power generation, and industrial use, not what you pay at the pump.

Just be careful when reading forecasts so you know whether they mean car fuel or natural gas for energy.

What this means for you (practical angle)

While no one can give a perfectly precise number, the current data suggest:

  • Over the next few weeks:
    • Higher odds of 4+ USD per gallon , especially if you’re in states that usually run above the national average.
* A meaningful chance of flirting with **record territory** if tensions or supply disruptions worsen.
  • Over the rest of 2026:
    • Many forecasts still see sub‑3 USD average national prices, implying that today’s spike is more of a surge than a locked‑in new baseline.

If you’re budgeting, planning a road trip, or just trying to not get blindsided, it’s reasonable to assume short‑term pain, medium‑term easing , unless there’s a major new shock.

TL;DR: Gas is likely to get more expensive in the short term, possibly pushing toward 4–5 USD nationally if current tensions persist, but most forecasts still see 2026 averaging closer to 3 USD per gallon rather than staying at record highs.

Information gathered from public forums or data available on the internet and portrayed here.