It depends on what you mean by “drop to 5%,” but for 30-year mortgage rates , current reporting suggests it could take months or even years , and some experts think it is unlikely within the next couple of years without a recession or a major shift in inflation and bond yields.

What experts are saying

  • One recent report says 5% mortgage rates may be possible in 2026, but only if several conditions line up, including lower inflation, softer bond yields, and easing geopolitical pressure.
  • Another says a return to 5% would probably require a recession or unusually strong disinflation, making the timeline uncertain.
  • A separate market outlook pegged the baseline near 6.25% through 2026, which implies 5% is not the base-case scenario yet.

Practical read

  • Best-case: within about a year if rates, inflation, and bond yields all move favorably.
  • More likely: longer than a year, possibly 2+ years , if conditions improve only gradually.
  • If you mean another type of “5%,” the timeline could be totally different.

TL;DR

For mortgage rates, dropping to 5% is possible but not expected soon ; the clearest expert take is that it likely takes months to years , not weeks.