Republicans would need 51 votes to get rid of the filibuster, so they currently lack at least 1 vote if all 53 Republicans are counted together. Senate rules normally require 60 votes to overcome a filibuster on most legislation, but changing the rule itself via the “nuclear option” would take a simple majority of 51.

What that means

  • The GOP has 53 senators.
  • A rule change needs 51 votes.
  • So, in pure math, they can afford to lose no more than 2 Republicans and still reach 51.

Real-world wrinkle

Public reporting says Republicans do not currently have the votes inside their conference to do it, so the practical shortfall may be more than one vote if several GOP senators oppose the move.

TL;DR

They need 51 votes , and with 53 Republicans , they’re short by 0 votes only if every Republican agrees ; otherwise they’re missing however many GOP senators oppose it.