Petrol prices are currently rising again in many places, but no one can say exactly how much they will increase next, only what has already been announced and what analysts expect in the short term.

How Much Will Petrol Increase?

Quick Scoop

1. What’s happening right now?

In early March 2026, several countries have already confirmed higher fuel prices at the pump.

  • UAE :
    • Super 98: up from AED 2.45 to AED 2.59 per litre (≈ 14 fils increase).
* Special 95: up from AED 2.33 to AED 2.48 (≈ **15 fils** increase).

* E-Plus 91: up from AED 2.26 to AED 2.40 (≈ **14 fils** increase).

* Diesel: up from AED 2.52 to AED 2.72 (≈ **20 fils** increase).
  • United States (gasoline) :
    • Average retail prices are expected to break above 3 dollars per gallon for the first time in more than three months.
* Analysts warn that if crude rises further, U.S. prices could move into the **3.10–3.25 dollars per gallon** range relatively quickly.
  • South Africa (example of March tax and levy hikes) :
    • A recent report notes proposed increases in levies such as the general fuel levy and carbon fuel levy, adding several cents per litre on top of normal market moves.

These examples show that the current wave of increases is in the order of a few percent month‑to‑month, not a doubling overnight, though this can still hit household budgets hard.

2. Why are petrol prices going up?

Several global forces are pushing prices higher at the same time.

  • Higher crude oil prices
    • Brent crude recently moved higher on fears of supply disruption from major producers and geopolitical tensions.
* In one recent month, Brent’s average closing price rose from about **61.5 to 63.5 dollars per barrel** , with spikes above **66 dollars**.

* A sharp 10% jump took Brent to around **80 dollars per barrel** after an attack involving Iran, and some analysts say **100 dollars** is possible if conflict escalates.
  • Geopolitical risk
    • Tensions involving Iran and the risk to flows through the Strait of Hormuz are a key concern; any disruption there can quickly push global prices higher.
  • Local taxes and levies
    • Governments can add increases in fuel duties, levies, or carbon taxes on top of market‑driven changes, as hinted in the South African discussion about raising general and carbon fuel levies by several cents per litre.
  • Monthly price formulae
    • In deregulated markets such as the UAE, fuel prices are revised monthly based on average international oil prices and distribution costs, which means prices can rise or fall fairly quickly with the global market.

3. So… how much could it increase next?

Nobody can state a precise future number, but current expert commentary gives a rough sense of scale.

  • In recent official adjustments, month‑to‑month increases of 5–10% per litre (like the UAE’s March rise) are typical when crude has climbed significantly.
  • One fuel analyst estimates that every 5 dollars per barrel increase in crude can translate into about 12 cents per gallon extra at the pump for gasoline and diesel in the U.S. (roughly 3–4 cents per litre), though some suppliers have already raised wholesale prices by up to 25 cents per gallon in response to recent events.
  • Where governments are also lifting fuel levies, you can see an extra few cents per litre just from tax changes, on top of whatever the market does.

In simple terms: if tension in oil‑producing regions worsens and crude climbs toward 100 dollars per barrel, most drivers should expect noticeably higher prices over the coming weeks , but still in steps rather than a sudden, massive jump.

4. Different viewpoints: Will this be short‑term or long‑term?

“We were on track to reach 3.10–3.25 dollars per gallon with a stable Persian Gulf. Now, we are likely to hit that mark rapidly, and the recent developments have opened the door to even higher prices.”

There are several ways experts see this playing out.

  1. Short‑term spike scenario
    • If tensions ease, analysts expect prices to stabilize or ease back after the initial shock.
 * In this view, the current increases are sharp but temporary, with markets calming once supply fears fade.
  1. Extended high‑price scenario
    • If conflict lingers or widens, oil benchmarks could stay elevated or climb further, pushing petrol higher for months rather than weeks.
 * This is the scenario behind some warnings of significantly higher price ranges at the pump.
  1. Policy‑driven cushioning
    • Some governments may choose to cut fuel duties, cap prices, or subsidise temporarily to protect households, which can limit how much drivers actually see at the pump.

Because of these uncertainties, any precise forecast like “petrol will increase by X amount by date Y” would be speculative.

5. What can you do as a driver?

While you cannot control global politics or oil markets, you can reduce the impact on your own wallet.

  • Track local price announcements
    • Many regulators and motoring groups publish weekly or monthly fuel updates with exact changes and timing.
  • Fill up before official hikes
    • Once your country’s authorities or major retailers announce upcoming changes, it can make sense to fill your tank ahead of the new rate , as long as you avoid panic buying.
  • Use fuel‑price comparison tools
    • In some regions (like the UK and others), official or private tools let drivers compare station prices; this open‑data approach is meant to help people find cheaper fuel and put pressure on overpriced stations.
  • Improve fuel efficiency
    • Driving smoothly, keeping tyres properly inflated, and avoiding unnecessary weight can reduce consumption and partially offset price rises.
  • Consider travel adjustments
    • Car‑sharing, combining trips, or occasionally using public transport can meaningfully reduce how often you need to fill up.

6. Mini FAQ: “How much will petrol increase?” in one glance

  • Is petrol going up right now?
    Yes, at the start of March 2026 many regions are seeing noticeable price rises after a period of relative stability or decline.
  • How big are the latest increases?
    Recent official changes have been in the range of a few cents to around 20 fils per litre (roughly 5–10% in some markets), with U.S. averages moving above 3 dollars per gallon again.
  • Could it get much worse?
    Yes, if crude oil continues to climb toward 100 dollars per barrel and tensions in key regions persist, further increases at the pump are likely, but the exact size is uncertain.
  • Why can’t anyone give a fixed number?
    Petrol prices depend on future events —geopolitics, OPEC decisions, demand, currency moves, and local taxes—so analysts can only give scenarios and ranges , not guaranteed figures.

Information gathered from public forums or data available on the internet and portrayed here.