Punxsutawney Phil is not very accurate as a weather forecaster: most analyses put his long‑term accuracy at around 35–40% , which is actually worse than flipping a coin.

How often is Punxsutawney Phil correct?

  • Long‑term studies using the Stormfax Almanac data say Phil has been right about 39% of the time since the late 1800s.
  • Over roughly the last decade , the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) estimates his accuracy at only about 30%.
  • One ranking of “animal forecasters” even lists Phil at around 35% accuracy, near the bottom of the pack.

So if you’re asking “how often is Groundhog Phil correct,” the practical answer is: roughly 1 in 3 predictions , sometimes a bit better, sometimes a bit worse, depending on the time period you look at.

Why the numbers vary

Different groups define “correct” in slightly different ways. Some compare Phil’s call (early spring vs six more weeks of winter) to:

  1. Actual temperatures in the following weeks.
  2. Whether conditions were more “winter‑like” or “spring‑like” overall.

Because weather is messy and regional, you’ll see slightly different percentages, but they all cluster well below 50%.

Fun context and forum vibes

  • The official Punxsutawney Groundhog Club jokingly insists Phil is “100% accurate” , blaming any errors on humans “misinterpreting” him.
  • Online discussions and memes often point out that people would literally do better tossing a coin than trusting Phil’s shadow.

So Phil’s predictions are best seen as a fun tradition and community event , not a serious weather tool.

TL;DR: If you’re planning your February and March weather, trust your local forecast—not Phil’s shadow. His real‑world hit rate is only about 30–40%.

Information gathered from public forums or data available on the internet and portrayed here.