Punxsutawney Phil's prediction accuracy sits around 39% historically. This famous groundhog from Pennsylvania has been making Groundhog Day forecasts since 1887, but data shows his calls on six more weeks of winter or early spring often miss the mark.

Historical Track Record

Records from sources like the Stormfax Almanac reveal Phil and his ancestors have been correct just 39% of the time over 130+ years. Since 1969, when weather data became more reliable, accuracy dips to about 36%. A NOAA study from 2012-2021 pegged it at 40%, still below a coin flip's 50%.

Recent Performance

Over the past decade, Phil's hit rate has been even lower at roughly 30%. For instance, CBS reports he was right only 3 times in the last 10 years. This year's February 2, 2026, prediction (seeing his shadow for more winter) follows the trend—experts note it's fun tradition, not science.

Time Period| Accuracy Rate| Source Notes [web:ID]
---|---|---
Since 1887| 39%| Stormfax Almanac 135
Since 1969| 36%| Weather Underground 3
2012-2021| 40%| NOAA 3
Past 10 Years| 30%| CBS/NOAA 25

Forum and Expert Takes

Reddit users crunch numbers showing Phil's worse than random—his "anti- prediction" (do the opposite) hits 61%. Meteorologists like Zoe Mintz call 40% a failing grade for forecasts, though it's "cute" entertainment. Live Science notes no-see-shadow predictions fare slightly better at 47%, but overall, climatology beats him. Wikipedia cites empirical ranges of 35-41%, dismissing club claims of 80-100%.

Why It Persists

Despite the stats, Groundhog Day draws crowds for its folklore roots in Candlemas traditions. Trending discussions highlight the irony: Phil's poor record makes him a meme, with stats going viral yearly. Fun fact—flipping a coin outperforms him, per experts.

TL;DR: Phil's ~39% accuracy makes him unreliable for weather, but a beloved quirky event.

Information gathered from public forums or data available on the internet and portrayed here.