Egypt look like a slight underdog, but the matchup is fairly close. Based on current odds, Australia is around a small favorite, with Egypt’s win chances roughly in the 35–40% range, depending on the book and lineup news.

What the market says

  • ESPN’s odds page shows Australia as the favorite, with Egypt listed at about +150 on the moneyline and a draw around +190 to +200.
  • That usually implies Egypt has a real upset path, not a long-shot one.
  • Match previews also lean toward Egypt as a live underdog, especially in a low-scoring game.

Why Egypt can win

  • Egypt has a strong chance if the game stays tight and low-scoring.
  • Preview coverage points to Egypt’s attack and a likely cautious match script, including interest in under 2.5 goals.
  • The fact that Egypt reached the knockout round suggests they have enough form to compete with Australia here.

Practical read

  • Australia: slight favorite.
  • Egypt: very live upset candidate.
  • Draw in 90 minutes: also plausible, which would push the result deeper into extra time or penalties depending on the format.

Quick estimate

A reasonable, plain-English estimate is:

  1. Australia win: about 45–50%.
  2. Egypt win: about 35–40%.
  3. Draw after 90 minutes: about 20–25%.

Bottom line

Egypt can definitely win, but Australia is still the safer pick on paper. The most likely upset path is a narrow, low-scoring match.