Germany was the most likely winner on pre-match data, but the match itself ended with Ecuador winning 2–1. CBS Sports listed Germany as the moneyline favorite and leaned toward a Germany win, while post-match reports confirm Ecuador pulled off the result.

What the data said

  • Germany were favored at -175 on the 90-minute moneyline, with Ecuador at +390 and a draw at +370.
  • CBS Sports expected Germany to edge it, suggesting a likely 1-0 or 2-0 type result.
  • The Analyst’s post-match report shows the actual score was Ecuador 2–1 Germany, with Gonzalo Plata scoring the winner.

Plain-English read

The numbers pointed to Germany before kickoff, mostly because of their form and status as group winners. But Ecuador had enough defensive strength and counterattacking threat to make an upset plausible, and that is what happened.

Result

  • Predicted winner from the data: Germany.
  • Actual winner: Ecuador.

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