If the groundhog doesn’t see his shadow on Groundhog Day, the folklore says we’ll get an early spring.

What the tradition says

According to the classic Pennsylvania Dutch superstition:

  • If the groundhog sees his shadow: six more weeks of winter.
  • If the groundhog doesn’t see his shadow: he stays out of his burrow, which is taken as a sign of an early spring.

So in simple terms, “no shadow” = “spring comes sooner” in the legend.

How accurate is it really?

In reality, groundhog predictions aren’t scientifically reliable and tend to be about as good as chance.

Studies looking at many different “weather‑predicting” groundhogs show accuracy hovering around roughly 50%, similar to flipping a coin.

Even for famous groundhogs like Punxsutawney Phil, years when he predicts an early spring don’t consistently match what the weather actually does.

So: if the groundhog doesn’t see his shadow, the story is that spring will be early—but in practice it’s just a fun mid‑winter tradition, not a forecast you can plan your wardrobe or garden around.