When the groundhog sees its shadow on Groundhog Day, folklore says we’re in for six more weeks of winter.

What it “means” in the tradition

  • If the groundhog comes out of its burrow on February 2 and sees its shadow (because the weather is sunny), it gets “scared,” retreats back into its den, and that’s taken as a sign of six more weeks of winter.
  • If it comes out and does not see its shadow (cloudy day), it’s said to stay above ground, which is interpreted as an early spring.
  • This idea comes from old European and Pennsylvania Dutch superstition tied to Candlemas, where clear, sunny weather on that day was believed to signal a longer winter.

In story form: imagine a sleepy groundhog popping out into bright sunshine, spotting a long, sharp shadow on the snow and deciding, “Nope, still winter,” then diving back into its burrow—people read that as winter hanging on for a while longer.

How it’s viewed today

  • It’s a fun cultural and media event, especially around Punxsutawney Phil in Pennsylvania, but not a serious weather forecast.
  • Modern analyses show the predictions are not scientifically reliable; his success rate is around chance level, and agencies like NOAA and the Library of Congress note the lore has no real meteorological basis.

So, in simple terms: if the groundhog sees its shadow, the legend says six more weeks of winter—though real forecasters still rely on actual weather models, not the groundhog.