Australia would likely finish with the stronger position, while Turkiye beating the USA would mostly change the standings below the top spot rather than taking first place. In the Group D setup reported today, the United States had already secured first place, Turkiye was already eliminated, and Australia and Paraguay were fighting for the remaining knockout berth.

What that means

  • Australia beating Paraguay would give Australia the crucial result in the head-to-head race for the final automatic Round of 32 spot.
  • Turkiye beating the USA would be a dead-rubber upset in terms of qualification, because the USA had already locked up top spot and Turkiye was already out.
  • So the biggest practical effect would be Australia advancing, Paraguay missing out, and Turkiye getting a consolation win over the group winner.

In standings terms

If both results happen, the group likely looks like this:

[10] [10] [3][10] [6][10]
Team Effect
Australia Wins the key match and likely takes the remaining knockout place.
Paraguay Falls short if defeated by Australia.
Turkiye Can beat the USA, but it does not change elimination status.
USA Still finishes first in the group.

Simple version

The headline is: Australia beating Paraguay matters much more than Turkiye beating the USA. The Australia result decides who moves on; the Turkiye result is mostly for pride and momentum.

TL;DR

Australia wins the meaningful game, Paraguay likely drops out, and Turkiye beating the USA would be a notable but mostly cosmetic upset because both of those US-related group positions were already decided.