The expected Social Security COLA for 2027 is currently being projected in the 3.8% to 4.7% range, with 3.8% from the Senior Citizens League and 4.7% from independent analyst Mary Johnson. The official number will not be set until the fall, after third-quarter inflation data is finalized.

Quick Scoop

Here’s the current read on 2027 COLA projections:

  • 3.8% : A conservative forecast from the Senior Citizens League.
  • 4.7% : A higher estimate from Mary Johnson, cited in recent coverage.
  • Official announcement : Expected in October 2026 , based on July, August, and September inflation data.

What is driving it

The main reason the forecast has moved higher is that inflation has stayed elevated in recent data, especially in CPI and CPI-W readings. Some coverage also links the hotter outlook to rising energy prices and broader inflation pressure.

What it means

If the COLA lands closer to 3.8% , the increase would still be meaningful for retirees. If it comes in near 4.7% , it would be one of the larger Social Security increases in recent years.

Bottom line

A reasonable current expectation is around 4% , with published forecasts ranging from 3.8% to 4.7% until the official figure is announced.