what is the probability of Haiti beating morroco?
Morocco is the clear favorite, and Haiti’s chance of winning looks low — roughly around 5% to 10% based on the betting signals I found, with one market showing about a 7.4% away-win probability for Haiti and about a 75.5% Morocco win probability.
Why Morocco is favored
Morocco had the stronger pre-match outlook in recent Group C previews, and Haiti was still seen as the underdog going into the matchup. One odds snapshot also showed Morocco with a very strong home-win probability, while Haiti’s win chance was in the single digits.
What that means in plain terms
- Morocco winning: most likely outcome.
- Draw: possible, but much less likely than a Morocco win.
- Haiti winning: upset territory, but not impossible.
Context from the matchup
The matchup was treated as a decisive Group C game, with Haiti’s coach saying a win over Morocco could still keep qualification hopes alive. That makes the match meaningful, but it does not change the fact that Morocco was rated much more likely to win.
Practical estimate
If you want a simple single-number answer, I’d put Haiti’s win probability at about 7% as a fair estimate from the odds context. That’s not a guarantee, just a market-based estimate of how often an upset like that would be expected.
| Outcome | Estimated chance |
|---|---|
| Morocco win | About 75% |
| Draw | About 17% |
| Haiti win | About 7% |
