The pressure is mostly downward , not upward: when a lockup expires, insiders and early holders can sell, which often increases float and can weigh on the stock price. That said, for SPCX the situation looks more mixed because there is also short interest, some holders may keep shares through the transition, and the lockup appears to be staggered rather than one single release.

What creates the pressure

  • More shares can hit the market. Lockup expirations usually expand supply, and that alone can pressure price if demand does not keep up.
  • Some investors may sell early. Recent coverage says short bets are elevated, while borrowing conditions do not look like a classic squeeze setup, which suggests traders are positioning for normal price discovery rather than a forced rally.
  • Rebalancing can add volatility. Reports around SPCX mention that institutional holders may adjust portfolios around the lockup window, which can create temporary swings.

What could support the stock

  • Not every holder sells. Some early investors may keep shares if they expect long-term upside from SpaceX’s growth story and market demand.
  • The lockup is not necessarily a single event. A staggered release can spread selling over time instead of creating one sharp dump.
  • Short covering can help. If the stock holds up better than expected, short sellers may need to buy back shares, which can cushion declines.

Practical read

The cleanest way to think about it is this: the lockup ending usually adds selling pressure, but not all at once and not always enough to overwhelm demand. For SPCX specifically, recent reporting points to a market that is already debating fair value, with some downside risk from supply, but not a guaranteed collapse.

In plain English: the pressure to “keep SPCX up” is mostly whatever buyers, long-term holders, and short-covering can do to offset the new shares that may come available.

TL;DR

Lockup expiry usually creates downward pressure because more shares can be sold, but SPCX may see a slower, staggered effect rather than one huge break. The stock’s path will depend on how much insiders sell, how much demand stays in the name, and whether shorts help or hurt the move.