Paraguay were a clear underdog against Germany. Before the match, one market had Paraguay at about a 15% chance to advance and Germany at 86% , while another sportsbook priced Paraguay at +1000 to win in 90 minutes, which implies roughly a 9% to 10% raw win chance before adjusting for bookmaker margin.

What the numbers meant

  • To advance: Paraguay around 15%, Germany around 86%.
  • To win in 90 minutes: Paraguay around +1000, Germany around -320, draw around +420.
  • Context: analysts and previews described Paraguay’s chances as low because Germany were the stronger side on paper, even though Paraguay ultimately pulled off the upset.

Practical read

In plain English, Paraguay were expected to win only about 1 time in 6 or 1 time in 10 , depending on which market you use, which is why their victory was treated as a shock. The gap was big enough that a Paraguay win sat in upset territory rather than a close toss-up.

TL;DR: Paraguay’s odds to beat Germany were roughly 15% to advance and about +1000 on the 90-minute moneyline, making them a heavy underdog.