On June 29, 2012, Lynchburg was in the path of the historic derecho, but the severe storm threat was not forecast well in advance. The best-supported answer is that storm prediction confidence for Lynchburg was fairly low earlier that day, with clearer signs only emerging the morning of June 29 as high-resolution models began suggesting an intense thunderstorm line.

What was known that day

The National Weather Service assessment says the event was not well forecast more than 24 hours ahead of time, and only on the morning of June 29 did models begin to hint at the damaging line that later formed.

That means any specific “chance” for Lynchburg would have been limited and uncertain early on, rather than a strong, high-confidence forecast.

Lynchburg impact

By the evening of June 29, radar showed the storm complex approaching Lynchburg, and local reports describe very hot conditions just before the derecho arrived.

So the practical answer is that Lynchburg had a growing severe-storm risk that day, but the forecast probability was not especially high far in advance because this derecho developed and organized quickly.

Plain-language takeaway

If you mean “what were the odds in the forecast,” the closest accurate summary is: low confidence early, increasing only later on June 29.

If you mean “what happened in Lynchburg,” the storm did become severe there that evening as part of the June 29 derecho.

Question| Best-supported answer
---|---
Forecast confidence earlier in the day| Low and uncertain 4
Confidence later on June 29| Increased as model guidance improved 4
Lynchburg outcome| Severe thunderstorm/derecho impacts reached the area that evening 23

TL;DR: Lynchburg was not under a strong, confident severe forecast much ahead of time; the warning picture improved only on June 29 itself, shortly before the derecho hit.