Venezuela has just been hit by a major shock: a U.S. bombing campaign that reportedly captured Nicolás Maduro and triggered a nationwide state of emergency, so the short-term outlook is instability and uncertainty, while the long-term path will depend on how power, oil, and regional politics are rearranged over the next months. No one can say with certainty “what will happen,” but several plausible scenarios are already taking shape, from a messy transition to prolonged conflict.

Quick Scoop: What’s Happening Now

  • The U.S. launched strikes inside Venezuela under “Operation Absolute Resolve,” hitting military and strategic sites in and around Caracas.
  • Donald Trump has announced that Maduro and his wife Cilia Flores were captured and taken out of the country to face narcoterrorism and related charges in U.S. courts.
  • Venezuela has declared a national state of emergency and denounced the attack as illegal “military aggression,” while calling for urgent action at the U.N. Security Council.

These moves have instantly created a power vacuum at the top of the Venezuelan state and raised fears of wider regional fallout.

Short-Term: Chaos, Power Vacuum, Refugees

In the immediate future, several pressure points are likely:

  • Internal power struggle
    • With Maduro removed, different factions inside Chavismo (military, party elites, intelligence services) may compete to control the state apparatus and security forces.
* Opposition leaders who have long pushed for regime change may try to position themselves as a “transition” alternative, but they are fragmented and often distrusted by parts of the population and the armed forces.
  • Security and humanitarian risks
    • Targeted strikes against military facilities and infrastructure increase the risk of blackouts, disrupted transport, and interruptions to fuel, food, and medical supply chains, at least in some regions.
* Neighboring countries, especially Colombia, are preparing for a possible new wave of refugees and already mobilizing security forces along the border out of concern that the crisis could spill over.
  • Street reaction
    • Some Venezuelans may welcome the fall of Maduro as a chance for change after years of economic collapse and authoritarian drift.
* Others fear foreign intervention, civil conflict, or the fragmentation of the state, and may rally around nationalist or anti-U.S. sentiments.

Medium-Term Scenarios: What Could Happen Next

It helps to think in scenarios rather than predictions; Venezuela could move along or between these paths over time.

  1. Managed transition under external supervision
    • Trump has hinted the U.S. will “run Venezuela until a safe transition,” which suggests an attempt to influence or oversee a transitional government or administration.
 * In a best-case version, this might involve a negotiated interim authority with opposition figures, parts of the existing state, and international facilitators (e.g., some Latin American or European states) leading to new elections.
  1. Fragmented state and internal conflict
    • If the military high command fractures—some accepting new arrangements, others staying loyal to Maduro’s inner circle or going rogue—local strongmen, armed groups, and criminal networks could fill the gaps.
 * That would deepen problems like smuggling, paramilitary activity, and territorial control battles, especially in border and mining regions, and could resemble a slow-burn internal conflict rather than a clear-cut civil war.
  1. Internationalization of the crisis
    • Regional governments are already condemning or questioning the legality of the strikes and calling for emergency meetings at the U.N. and the Organization of American States.
 * If some countries quietly back the intervention while others oppose it strongly (for example, allies of Venezuela or governments wary of U.S. precedent), Venezuela could become a diplomatic fault line, with implications for sanctions, aid, and recognition of any new leadership.
  1. Economic shock and oil realignment
    • Venezuela holds immense oil reserves, and U.S. seizure or control of sanctioned tankers, plus military action, is already part of a broader struggle over those resources.
 * Future scenarios range from:
   * Rapid moves to reopen or reorient oil production under new political arrangements, to
   * Long-term damage to infrastructure and investor uncertainty that keeps output low and the domestic economy in crisis.

How This Might Shape Daily Life

For ordinary Venezuelans, the key questions are security, access to basics, and political inclusion.

  • Daily security
    • Urban residents may experience heightened military presence, curfews, and localized clashes around strategic sites, depending on how the armed forces and security services react.
* In border areas, people could face more checkpoints, migration controls, and possible confrontations involving Colombian, Venezuelan, and non-state armed actors.
  • Economy and basics
    • Any disruption to ports, refineries, and power infrastructure can worsen shortages of fuel, food, and medicine in the short term, even if external actors promise humanitarian corridors or aid.
* Over the longer term, genuine stabilization would require rebuilding institutions, attracting investment, and easing sanctions in a way that actually benefits the broader population, not just new elites.
  • Voice in the transition
    • One of the biggest risks is that decisions about Venezuela’s future are made mostly in Washington, foreign capitals, or elite negotiations, while everyday Venezuelans—both supporters and opponents of Chavismo—remain sidelined.
* Grassroots movements, unions, community organizations, and diaspora groups will likely push for a say in any transitional arrangements, but their leverage will depend on how the political and security situation evolves.

How to Think About “What Will Happen”

No forecast can be precise in a moment like this, but a few key factors will shape outcomes:

  • Whether the Venezuelan armed forces mostly unify behind a transition, split, or resist
  • How far the U.S. is willing to go—limited strikes and pressure, or deeper involvement in governing and security
  • The stance of regional powers (Colombia, Brazil, Mexico, Caribbean states) and global players who have had ties to Caracas
  • The ability of Venezuelan political and social actors to negotiate a transition that avoids large-scale violence and further economic collapse

In other words, Venezuela is entering a dangerous and fluid phase: the fall or capture of Maduro does not automatically mean rapid democratization or recovery, but it does open a new chapter whose direction will depend on choices made in the coming weeks and months.

Information gathered from public forums or data available on the internet and portrayed here.