If Messi had missed his penalty in the 2022 World Cup final shootout, Argentina’s margin for error would have shrunk fast, and France would have been in a stronger position to win the title. His successful kick was one of the key moments in the shootout, so a miss likely would have swung momentum toward France and made Argentina’s path to the trophy much harder.

What changes most

A Messi miss in the shootout would not automatically have ended Argentina’s hopes, but it would have put them under immediate pressure. In a penalty shootout, every miss can become decisive because the result is usually decided by just one or two kicks.

Likely ripple effects

  • France would have had a psychological edge after a missed kick from Argentina’s captain.
  • Argentina would have needed other takers to stay perfect just to keep pace.
  • The final result could have flipped if France converted their own chances cleanly.

Why it mattered so much

Messi had already scored from the spot during the match, and his shootout penalty helped keep Argentina on track in one of the most dramatic finals ever played. The match finished 3-3 and Argentina won 4-2 on penalties, so even a single missed kick from Messi could have changed the outcome of the shootout and possibly the world title itself.

Simple picture

Think of the shootout like a chain: one broken link can change the whole result. Messi’s miss would not guarantee a France win, but it would have made that outcome much more likely.

TL;DR: If Messi had missed, France would probably have been favored in the shootout, and Argentina’s World Cup win could easily have disappeared.